Maybe it’s time for the Buffalo Bills to draft a quarterback.
I understand they just awarded Josh Allen one of the richest contracts in sports history. I also understand they have three backups on the roster already.
Even so, there are good reasons for Buffalo to take a serious look at procuring another QB in a couple of weeks.
Nowhere will you see reports that connect Buffalo to quarterbacks from this year’s class, nothing about them making official pre-draft visits to One Bills Drive or holding stealth workouts.
Although the Bills don’t have an obvious need, that doesn’t mean they can’t improve their situation smartly. The right prospect in an appealing draft slot could save the Bills money and bring peace of mind to the perennial Super Bowl contenders.
Determining appropriate value, however, is complicated.
The calculus for drafting a backup quarterback – this year or in the future – is about finding where multiple needs intersect at a sweet spot.
The decision boils down to not wasting a pick that can be used on a meaningful contributor on a guy who, in a perfect world, merely will hold a clipboard.
Granted, the dropoff from Allen to any replacement is immense, perhaps ruinous. But assuming any long-term Allen absence automatically equals a lost season would be managerial malpractice. Myriad examples exist of backup quarterbacks not only keeping seasons afloat, but also being the hero. Frank Reich never has to pay for a milkshake in Buffalo again.
That’s why the Bills’ scouting department didn’t stop evaluating rookie quarterbacks once Allen blossomed. General manager Brandon Beane can seize the opportunity if a prospect his staff likes slides into the middle rounds. A good, young quarterback on a rookie deal provides several benefits.
He comes cheap. He might win. And if you don’t keep him around, he can be traded.
Allen last month signed a six-year extension worth $330 million and an NFL-record $250 million in guarantees. Sports contract database Spotrac lists Allen’s deal second to Kansas City Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes’ in total value and second to Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert’s in total cash. The length of Allen’s contract is shorter only than Mahomes’ commitment through 2033.
The Bills and their franchise quarterback intend to stay together for a long, long time. An economical prospect would help shave money that can be spent elsewhere while abandoning the free-agent carousel.
Buffalo possesses a backup variety pack with former Chicago Bears franchise-QB designee Mitchell Trubisky, former Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets and Miami Dolphins backup Mike White and practice-squad veteran Shane Buechele.
Trubisky went to a Pro Bowl and has started 59 games, including two in the playoffs. His salary cap figure is $3.25 million, sixth-highest among backup quarterbacks not on a premium rookie contract. White, who started seven games with the Jets, is at $1.195 million. Buechele carries a $1.03 million cap hit.
None is on an upward trajectory. Trubisky also had a chance to be the Pittsburgh Steelers’ starter and will be 31 years old this summer. White just turned 30. The undrafted Buechele is 27 and has yet to take an NFL snap. None is an asset beyond being a Bills backup.
Allen used to rely on experienced helpers such as Derek Anderson, Matt Barkley and Case Keenum. Now, the reigning MVP is in the prime of his career. Allen has never seemed more grounded. Next month, he turns 29 and is getting married. Two seasons ago, he was a wayward space cadet on the field. Allen has admitted it’s no coincidence that meeting Hailee Steinfeld calmed his entire existence, even as a quarterback. His evolved maturity is evident.
What can an old veteran teach Allen now? Nothing.
As such, the timing is better for a young quarterback to bloom within the Bills-Allen system and culture. Buffalo’s lone attempt was five years ago when they drafted Jake Fromm in the fifth round. Allen, without a playoff win to his name, wasn’t ready to be a mentor like he is today. Fromm’s maturation also was thwarted by COVID restrictions that led the Bills to stash him off-campus in case Allen or Barkley got sick. The New York Giants signed him off the Bills’ practice squad in November 2021.
Like most quarterbacks taken in the mid- to late-rounds, Fromm suffered from limited practice reps. That’s a substantial part of this discussion. A quarterback not talented enough to get chosen much earlier almost certainly isn’t NFL-ready — unless his name is Brock Purdy.
Prospects require significant practice reps. Once the season begins, that becomes tricky. Starters get virtually all the snaps. Veteran backups hold an advantage in that they can lean on past experiences, whereas the youngster’s potential can rot, especially if he’s a third-stringer. Scout-team quarterbacks run scripted plays off a card, and that’s no legitimate way to learn.
Even the best college quarterbacks require intimate instruction to become NFL-caliber. Seemingly basic duties such as making a huddle call can’t be overlooked. College coaches line up their offenses on the ball and spoon-feed plays from the sideline. His quarterback’s biggest pre-snap assignment might be identifying the mike linebacker for blocking protections.
But if the Bills want to get cheaper by moving on from Trubisky, then there will be more room for a quality prospect to grow.
History offers no template for drawing up a franchise quarterback’s backup crew.
Many observers claim it’s pointless to invest behind a highly paid, superstar quarterback because, if the backup quarterback must play a significant number of games, then the season is sunk anyway. Those cynics contend the front office might as well spend that money on other position groups.
That’s how the Indianapolis Colts handled Peyton Manning for most of his career, using sixth-round picks on Jim Sorgi in 2004 and Curtis Painter in 2009. When a neck injury wiped out Manning’s 2011 season, the Colts went 2-14 and drafted Andrew Luck first overall.
The New England Patriots did the opposite with Tom Brady after winning their first Super Bowl. They drafted Rohan Davey in the 2002 fourth round, Kliff Kingsbury in the 2003 fourth round, Matt Cassel in the 2005 sixth round, Kevin O’Connell in the 2008 seventh round, Ryan Mallett in the 2011 third round, Jimmy Garoppolo in the 2014 second round and Jacoby Brissett in the 2016 third round.
Few of those QBs played meaningful snaps for the Patriots, but when Brady suffered a season-ending knee injury in the 2008 opener, Cassel navigated an 11-5 campaign. The Patriots also developed most of them enough into assets that were spun into fresh draft picks and players.
That’s the most attractive scenario: selecting a quarterback who serves a role, provides insurance for three seasons and develops to the point of being traded or leaving as a free agent that gooses the compensatory draft formula.
The Green Bay Packers, of course, are outliers. Twice in the past 20 years, they’ve courted controversy by using first-round picks to buttress an MVP quarterback with his heir apparent.
But the Colts’ uninterested approach is most common. Among other quarterbacks who’ve been voted MVP or All-Pro since the NFL’s 2002 realignment (aside from Rich Gannon, who was 37), few backups were drafted by their respective teams during their tenures: nobody as long as the Tennessee Titans had Steve McNair; 2020 seventh-rounder Tommy Stevens behind about-to-retire Drew Brees; 2013 seventh-rounder Sean Renfree behind Matt Ryan; 2019 third-rounder behind Cam Newton; 2019 sixth-rounder Trace McSorley behind Lamar Jackson; Fromm behind Allen; nobody since the Chiefs drafted Mahomes.
QB draft classes have been much deeper than this year’s. At such a premium position and with teams desperate to find their franchise guy, quarterbacks with a third-round grade might get called in the second round and start a run of reaches.
But if the Bills have a third-round grade on a quarterback who’s still available at one of their three fifth-round slots?
That’s something to consider.