Trending 📉 📈 after NFL’s Week 16, as the Falcons, Chiefs roll

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Today, we’re looking at the updated playoff standings, No. 1 pick race and more. Let’s start with the franchise-altering week in Atlanta.

📈 Trending 📉

Yesterday was a promising debut for rookie Michael Penix Jr., who looked poised, made difficult throws with confidence and opened up Atlanta’s offense in a game-manager role.

Don’t be deceived by the 24-year-old’s counting stats (18 of 27 for 202 passing yards and an interception) in the blowout win. Drops cost him yardage, and he can blame a Kyle Pitts flub for gifting New York the INT.

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Penix took zero sacks against the Giants’ strong pass rush and exploited their passing defense, which entered the week ranked 29th in DVOA. He finished the day with an EPA per dropback that would tie with Joe Burrow for sixth among quarterbacks across the season. (Since Week 10, Kirk Cousins’ number ranks 29th of 30 eligible quarterbacks.)

Postgame, HC Raheem Morris said Penix “went out and played nearly flawless football.” The Falcons 34-7 victory propelled them to first place in the NFC South at 8-7, thanks to last night’s shocking loss by the Buccaneers (8-7) in Dallas. If the Falcons beat the Commanders and Panthers, they’ll have their first playoff bid since 2017, and Penix will have salvaged it.

Beat reporter Josh Kendall has more on the re-energized Falcons.

Now let’s sort the rest of the league into four categories. Starting with:

1. Teams vying for the top pick

📈 Giants draft odds. Averaging under 12 points per game since releasing Daniel Jones, New York saw Drew Lock throw two pick-sixes in the lopsided loss to Atlanta. There’s little hope for better across the final two games (Colts and Eagles). Expect this pick to be a quarterback, either Miami’s Cam Ward or Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders.

📉 Raiders draft odds. Las Vegas entered Week 16 as the favorite for the No. 1 pick. After their first victory in three months — a 19-14 win over the Jaguars — they dropped to the current No. 6 spot. Given the drop-off after the top two quarterbacks in the draft, the good vibes may be short-lived. Up next for the Raiders: the Saints and Chargers.

📈 Dave Canales. The Panthers head coach’s QB-whisperer resume grows with each week of positive play by Bryce Young, who’s playing with so much confidence, he’s out here trucking people despite weighing 200 pounds:

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Young ran for a career-high 68 yards while the Panthers won 36-30 in overtime, eliminating the Cardinals (now 7-8) from the playoffs. In the next two weeks, the 4-11 Panthers could also spoil Tampa Bay or Atlanta.

📉 Jerod Mayo’s job security. As Chad Graff wrote after New England’s 24-21 loss to Buffalo, “Drake Maye is a lot of fun, but the lack of talent is apparent everywhere and it’s easy to question a number of coaching decisions.” Here’s an example of the latter: Buffalo was winning 24-14 with 8:33 remaining. On a fourth-and-six, the Patriots punted from their own 45-yard line. The Surrender Index ranked it in the 95th percentile of cowardly punts this season. Mayo’s seat should be getting warmer.

2. Not good enough, not bad enough

📉 Jets vibes, again. Amid failed fourth-down conversions, forced throws to Davante Adams and two bad Allen Lazard drops, things somehow got even worse for Aaron Rodgers in the fourth quarter of their loss to the Rams, as first-round rookie LT Olu Fashanu exited with a foot injury. He was a bright spot in this 4-11 season, and now his injury could impact 2025.

📉 Defense in Chicago. Caleb Williams made several big-time throws, but it mattered little as the Bears (4-11) lost their ninth-straight game, 34-17 to Detroit. After the previous loss to Detroit, Chicago fired defensive-minded HC Matt Eberflus. Since then, their defense has allowed three straight 30-point games and 418.7 yards per game (second-worst in that span).

3. Wild Card hopes

📉 The Seahawks. At 8-7, they will need to win their next two games (Bears and Rams) and hope the Rams lose to the Cardinals next week, since L.A. owns the tiebreaker. It’s a tall ask, given that the Rams have won eight of their last 10.

đŸ€· Four of the five 6-8 teams won, but only three kept their slim playoff hopes alive. The Athletic’s projection model shows that there’s little hope for these teams:

  • The Bengals (7-8) won 24-6 over the Browns, and Joe Burrow defied gravity as he added 252 yards and three touchdowns to his quietly MVP-worthy season. Playoff odds: 5 percent.
  • The Colts (7-8) benefitted from Jonathan Taylor holding onto the ball (remember last week?), plus rushing for three touchdowns and 218 yards. Indy won 38-30 over the Titans. Playoff odds: 14 percent.
  • The Dolphins (7-8) eliminated the 49ers (now 6-9) from playoff contention with a 29-17 victory. De’Von Achane put on a strong performance for both Miami and his fantasy managers, leading the team in both rushing and receiving. Playoff odds: 12 percent.

And last night, the Cowboys (7-8) upset the Buccaneers 26-24, thanks to an incredible play by CB Daron Bland and an even better interception by CB Jourdan Lewis with just 6:30 remaining. “The takeaways won the game,” said HC Mike McCarthy, who is now 4-1 across their last five games and 4-3 since Dak Prescott went down.

But no matter, since they were eliminated from contention by the Commanders upsetting the Eagles (more below). Now, Dallas can only play spoiler against those division rivals over the final two weeks.

Before our final category of teams, let’s turn to Dianna for the latest on McCarthy’s future in Dallas:

What Dianna’s Hearing: Tea leaves on McCarthy

He entered 2024 a lame-duck coach on the final year of his contract, and the Cowboys were eliminated before their Week 16 game even kicked off. But as of this morning, things are looking up for McCarthy, and the Cowboys’ Sunday night win over the Buccaneers certainly helped.

Many around the league believe McCarthy is going to get a new contract from Jerry Jones. And Jones, speaking to reporters after last night’s win, provided fuel for that thinking with quotes like this: “Proud of those guys, they wouldn’t give it up out there. And Mike McCarthy, he just won’t let them not think they’re playing for the Super Bowl out there. He won’t let them do it. So proud of that.”

Back to you, Jacob.

4. The contenders

📈 The 14-1 Chiefs. After their 27-19 victory over the Texans (9-6), Kansas City is just one win away (either the Steelers on Christmas or the Broncos) from securing the first-round bye and being able to rest some starters in Week 18, which would mean two weeks more recovery than their first playoff opponent, the lowest remaining seed after the Wild Card round. Most importantly, Mahomes’ ankle looked fine.

AFC playoff picture

Seed Team Record Week 16 result

z–1

14-1

W vs. HOU

z–2

12-3

W vs. NE

x–3

10-5

L vs. BAL

z–4

9-6

L vs. KC

x–5

10-5

W vs. PIT

6

9-6

W vs. DEN

7

9-6

L vs. LAC

x — Clinched playoff berth | z — Clinched division title | * — Clinched No. 1 seed

📈 The Ravens became the latest AFC team to clinch a playoff berth, thanks to a convincing 34-17 win over the Steelers on Saturday. The continued absence of George Pickens and Pittsburgh’s difficult schedule (Chiefs and Bengals) adds to the chances that Baltimore (Texans and Browns) wins the NFC North and claims the No. 3 seed. The Steelers hold a narrow lead because of a tiebreaker.

📈 The depth of Ben Johnson’s playbook. If you might interview for a team’s head coach opening, you’d want to impress that team during your last matchup against them, right?

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Perhaps Bears fans can find comfort in that idea after Lions OC Ben Johnson called this tricky play-action. As Jared Goff pretended to drop the ball and Jahmyr Gibbs dove for the phantom pigskin, Detroit’s offensive line even yelled, “Fumble.”

One certainty: If Johnson’s willing to call that play — inspired by this Packers fumble last season — while up by multiple scores, who knows what’s in store for their playoff opponents? I can’t wait.

Detroit still leads the NFC, but the Vikings’ identical record leaves little margin for error:

NFC playoff picture

Seed

  

Team

  

Record

  

Week 16 result

  

x–1

13-2

W vs. CHI

x–2

12-3

L vs. WAS

3

9-6

W vs. NYJ

4

8-7

W vs. NYG

x–5

13-2

W vs. SEA

6

10-4

TBD vs. NO

7

10-5

W vs. PHI

x — Clinched playoff berth | z — Clinched division title | * — Clinched No. 1 seed

📉 The Eagles saw Jalen Hurts exit in the first quarter with a concussion. He was replaced by former Steelers first-round pick Kenny Pickett, who finished 14-of-24 passing for 143 yards, one touchdown and one interception but was a Devonta Smith drop away from victory.

Philadelphia led Washington 27-14 in the fourth quarter, when they could have clinched the NFC East without having to beat the Cowboys again 


📈 
 but along came the Commanders. Yesterday, Jayden Daniels accounted for five touchdowns as the Commanders took over the fourth quarter to win 36-33. This means the Eagles likely finish no higher than the No. 2 seed, while the Commanders look to win their first playoff game in 19 years. They can clinch a playoff spot with a win over Atlanta next week.

📈 The Vikings. As Mike Sando writes in his Pick-Six column, “Only the 1999 Kurt Warner-led St. Louis Rams have exceeded expectations through 15 games to a greater degree than these Vikings over the past 36 seasons.”

Wins over Vegas total, 1989-2024 (thru 15 games)

If Sam Darnold closes the season with wins against the Packers and Lions, Minnesota could secure the No. 1 seed and invaluable first-round bye. He could also see his MVP odds rise (he’s currently fifth at BetMGM).

For more:

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(Photo:
Kevin C. Cox, David Eulitt / Getty Images)





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