Watching games. Scribbling notes. Parsing through box scores. Scouring headlines. Managing daily leagues… Life was progressing normally. Saturday arrived and I was beginning to formulate the structure for this piece and, boy, did I have some great things in store for you! NARRATOR: He did not in fact have great things in store. Then the universe provided the goods like Batman and Robin from the 60s:
Luka Doncic was traded to the Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis.
BREAKING: The Dallas Mavericks are trading Luka Doncic, Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris to the Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis, Max Christie and a 2029 first-round pick, sources tell @ShamsCharania. Three-team deal that includes Utah. pic.twitter.com/joU6bXqnBJ
— ESPN (@espn) February 2, 2025
I quit smoking around 10 years ago, but I need a hit. Or two. Or carton.
The reactions have universally been ones of shock, horror and disbelief. And rightfully so, because Doncic is a 25-year-old basketball savant who has already proven to be a franchise Atlas, while the return for Dallas seemed extremely light.
I put on my tinfoil hat Saturday night, read and listened to countless experts espouse their opinions, but I’m not here to take you on that kind of trip. This will strictly be about the business of fantasy. But before we get down to the business, I need to bring back an oldie but a goodie:
First things first. Due to a calf strain, Doncic hasn’t played since December 25, 2024, a span of 19 games. While ESPN’s Tim MacMahon said Doncic is targeting a return before the All-Star break, nothing official has been released. When Doncic does return to action, it will likely take some time to get back up to over 30 minutes per game.
How will Luka Doncic and LeBron James fit together?
Both are big playmakers who can triple-double on any given night, so redundancy could be an issue.
Back in his early Cleveland days, LeBron would often have a usage rate in the 33% range. As he aged and teamed up with better players, that number came down to the 31% area. Over the past two seasons with the Lakers, the usage rate has been in the 29% territory. JJ Redick will likely stagger the two stars so one will be on the court at all times. LeBron will still have opportunities to get his, but I think Luka will carry more of the offensive load, which should suit the 40-year-old just fine. As long as they are productive and winning.
LeBron has certainly developed his three-point shot as time has progressed, and he’s often been in the 38% to 40% range on catch-and-shoot treys over the past 10 seasons, with a few blips at 35%. The volume wasn’t robust, though, attempting fewer than 2.0 per game. In the 2021-22 season, LeBron attempted 3.5 catch-and-shoot treys and converted at a 37.6% clip. He’s attempted 2.6 and 2.8 per game over the last two seasons, but draining 47.3% and 39.8%, respectively. LeBron is also an excellent cutter, so combined with his catch-and-shoot ability, the fit doesn’t seem as awkward as first thought.
Like LeBron, Doncic didn’t attempt many catch-and-shoot treys early in his career, often mired in the 1 area. Over the past two seasons, Doncic has attempted 2.2 and 2.0, converting 38.8% and 37.8%, respectively. That ain’t bad.
Doncic had a usage rate in the 35% to 37% range for five straight seasons. In 22 games this season, that number was 31.9%. Kyrie Irving was never a high-usage player, having a rate over 30% just once in his career, so while I think Doncic will still have a usage rate over 30%, I wouldn’t expect a number in the mid-30s.
Fantasy impact for the Lakers
From a macro perspective, I think the Lakers play with a little more pace and get out in transition, as Luka and LeBron can both grab a rebound and push it in transition. Currently, LA is 23rd in pace and 12th in fast break point percentage. This team, as it is currently constructed, cannot grind out games and rely on defense.
That means LeBron and Luka will likely see upticks in their rebounding numbers. Anthony Davis was cleaning the glass with 11.9 rebounds per game, so someone needs to fill that giant void. LeBron has a career-high of 8.6 boards and is averaging 7.6 this season. Luka has pulled down at least 9.0 rebounds per game twice and is at 8.3 this season.
I think the assists come down for LeBron while I think Luka sees an uptick. Currently, LeBron is dishing out 9.1 dimes per game while Luka is at 7.8. Luka will likely have the higher usage rate and see more double teams than LeBron.
Austin Reaves will likely be the player most negatively impacted by the arrival of Luka. Reaves was posting a career-high 22.1% usage rate this season, as he was often the player LeBron sent hunting. His role as a primary creator will be severely hampered now.
Jaxson Hayes could benefit the most. COULD. Hayes is athletic and can flush down oops with the best of them, and Luka is one of the best disher of oops. That said, Hayes has issues on defense and there are reasons he’s never averaged more than 20 minutes a contest in his six-year career. If he gets the playing time, then Hayes would be very fantasy relevant. Or the Lakers trade for a big man and we just wasted a few minutes of our lives. At least we did it together!
Rui Hachimura has started every game he’s played in this season, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s moved to more of a microwave-scorer role off the bench. The loss of Davis severely degrades the defense for the Lakers, and Dorian Finney-Smith is an excellent and versatile defender who’s shooting over 40% from downtown this season.
The Lakers could play faster and the defense could be bad. If so, that would make a matchup against the Lakers fantasy nirvana.
For those of you who were stressing that two-game week for Luka in mid-March, you just gained two extra games!
Fantasy impact for the Mavericks
The defense for Dallas just got a ton better. With Daniel Gafford regulating the neighborhood like Deebo in Friday, Anthony Davis will likely be the free safety roamer, causing mass havoc on opposing offenses. Dallas also has a plethora of 3-and-D on the wings in Naji Marshall, Quentin Grimes, Dante Exum and Max Christie. This won’t be a fun matchup for fantasy.
I don’t think much changes for Kyrie Irving. If anything, there could be a slight downtick. The usage rate will likely be in the 26% range it’s been for much of this season, as Anthony Davis will likely garner a usage rate in the high-20s.
As for Davis, the rebounds are going to come down. He was averaging 11.9 with the Lakers, but now playing alongside Gafford, there’s a chance that number goes down to 10 or fewer. Back in 2021-22 when Davis played with Dwight Howard and DeAndre Jordan, Davis averaged 9.9 rebounds per game. The defensive stats could uptick, though, as playing the potential roamer role could offer more opportunities for blocks and steals. In addition, not having to bang with other centers could provide a little more juice.
P.J. Washington will likely be most negatively impacted from this trade. He had seen a spike in usage rate to 25.5%, after languishing in the teens for much of the season. He has scored at least 20 points 10 times this season, with four of those coming in the past six games. That usage bump is toast now. In addition, he has played at power forward 86% of the time this season. He is either going to slide down to small forward or be in a reserve role backing up both Davis and Gafford.
There’s a slight chance Klay Thompson could see extra minutes because his defensive liabilities can more easily be masked now. Shooting 39% from downtown is still very valuable. That said, I do think the shooting guard and small forward positions will be committee-based because Jason Kidd has so many good options at his disposal now.
Here are some rays of Son from last week
The biggest story before Saturday night’s bombshell was the injury to Dejounte Murray. He tore his ACL trying to go for a rebound. Jose Alvarado will likely start, while CJ McCollum and Trey Murphy III will see increased usage and offensive responsibilities.
Kawhi Leonard is a fun guy. Since returning to action 13 games ago, the minutes have slowly been creeping up. He’s played at least 28 minutes in each of his past three games, and averaged 24 points in his past two contests. 30 minutes, here we come!
The prevailing wisdom was that rookie Stephon Castle would return to a reserve role when Jeremy Sochan returned to action, but Castle has started the past five games and averaged 28.6 minutes per contest. Sochan has received 19.9 minutes per game.
Patrick Williams signed a five-year, $90 million contract in the offseason then started 35 games. Three games ago, he was sent to a reserve role with first-round pick, Matas Buzelis, receiving an average of 22.7 minutes in that span. As Shang Tsung declared in Mortal Kombat, “It has begun!”
Last week, the Hawks lost Jalen Johnson for the season due to a torn labrum in his left shoulder. Zaccharie Risacher, Larry Nance Jr. and Dominick Barlow should all receive time at power forward. Risacher played 26 and 29 minutes in the past two games and scored 30 and 17 points. Nance has not received 20 minutes in any of the past three games. Barlow will likely only play a few minutes a night.
Dante Exum is definitely someone to monitor after the Doncic trade. Exum made his season debut on Friday and played 14 minutes. Kyrie Irving has not been the most durable player throughout his career and there was a stretch of 12 games last season when Exum started and averaged 16.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 0.9 steals in 31.5 minutes per game.
LaMelo Ball has missed three games due to a sprained ankle. Vasilije Micic injured his ankle during Saturday’s game. KJ Simpson has played an average of 26.3 minutes over the past three games, averaging 8.0 points, 3.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists. Simpson is only 6-foot and 189 pounds, but he’s super quick and has plenty of juice. The Hornets are 12-34 and Tre Mann could be done for the season, so Simpson could get plenty of run during “Silly Season”… “A Simpson in Silly Season.” The universe is amazing.
Ziaire Williams has been my infatuation over the past few years. Why? I have no idea. Maybe it’s because he went to Notre Dame in Los Angeles and Sierra Canyon in Chatsworth. Maybe it’s the 6-foot-9, 215 pound frame with the ability to make it rain from downtown. Even when he gets lost on defense or clanks another brick, I remain steadfast. Is my loyalty being rewarded now? Over the past two games, Williams has averaged 17 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.0 block in 34.8 minutes. I know, I know… Small sample, but he’s had some other good games sprinkled throughout this season. Both Johnsons are out for Brooklyn but there’s a chance Williams will receive plenty of run down the stretch. He’s still only 23 and was the 10th overall pick in the 2021 draft.
Speculating at the trade deadline
So, the original plan for this piece was to delve into if the Los Angeles nightlife is indeed undefeated and speculating before the trade deadline. I will go into the LA nightlife bit in another piece, as this is getting long, but I did want to touch on trading right now.
Everyone has their own style, strengths and weaknesses. I don’t like speculating before the trade deadline. Here’s why:
- Most of the things we read or hear about trade scenarios are rubbish. Some are from agents trying to drum up interest. Others are from Pete writing in his mom’s basement.
- Those often-talked-about trades don’t materialize.
- There are so many variables that are unknown. What players are coming back in a trade, other trades that a team makes, cuts, signings, etc. We are already dealing with incomplete information, so why make our lives more difficult?
- I often don’t find the value in speculating because most of the “targets” are known by everyone, inflating their prices. I think a perfect example is Jalen Smith. Everyone is expecting Nikola Vucevic to get traded, leaving the center minutes to Smith. But what if Vuc doesn’t get traded? What if he does, but another center replaces him? Now, if you’re able to scoop up Smith off the waiver wire, that’s a different story.
If trading right now, I think it should be focused on playoff schedules for head-to-head leagues and targeting certain stats for roto leagues.
(Top photo of Luka Doncic, LeBron James: Kirby Lee / USA TODAY Sports)
