Super Bowl odds: Breaking down 5 favorites as Chiefs, Lions, Bills still lead pack

By / / Sports / 7 minutes of reading


As Week 18 looms, final positioning for the playoffs is almost set across the NFL. The Kansas City Chiefs (+375) lead a deep field of Super Bowl contenders in the betting odds. The Chiefs took a slight lead over last week’s leaders, the Detroit Lions (+400). The Buffalo Bills (+550), Baltimore Ravens (+700) and Philadelphia Eagles (+700) are also in the top five of the odds.

As always, Week 18 will be a bit unusual, with some teams resting up before the postseason. But there are a few pivotal matchups that will determine playoff seeding.

2025 Super Bowl odds

Chiefs back on top

KC is inevitable. For the fourth time in the Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid era, the Chiefs secured the AFC’s No. 1 seed after dominating the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day. KC is 15-1 and has the opportunity to join the 2007 New England Patriots as the only teams to win 16 regular season games.

Mahomes is back like he never left, as he finished 29-of-38 for 320 yards and three touchdown passes in Week 17. The rest of the league won’t want to hear this, but he’s rounding into his elite form after a slow start to the year.

Over the last six games, the three-time Super Bowl MVP has 11 touchdowns and zero picks as his offensive weapons have filled out. Xavier Worthy impressed again, and Travis Kelce set the Chiefs’ franchise record for all-time receiving touchdowns, passing fellow tight end great Tony Gonzalez.

The Chiefs defense was strong again as well, limiting the Steelers to 10 points, getting five sacks and forcing two turnovers. It was the Chiefs’ third game in a row recording multiple turnovers, with a total of 10 forced in that span.

The AFC runs through the home of the two-time defending Super Bowl champions.

Detroit gets revenge

The Lions may not have done it on as big of a stage, but they had to feel good downing the San Francisco 49ers after falling to them in last season’s NFC Championship game. The Lions pulled out the win in one of the season’s highest-scoring affairs to extend their franchise record for wins to 14.

Jared Goff continues to shine. He passed for 303 yards and three touchdowns, the third consecutive game and fifth time this season hitting those benchmarks in the same game. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s onslaught also leaned heavily on Jahmyr Gibbs (163 total yards, one rushing touchdown) in David Montgomery’s absence.

Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta also scored in the win, but the emerging Jameson Williams truly stood out. Williams finished with 77 receiving yards and two scores (one rushing, one receiving). Williams is now up to eight TDs on the year (seven receiving, one rushing) and is 33 receiving yards away from his first 1,000-yard season.

As exciting as the Lions offense continues to be, their defense is concerning. They have allowed 30 or more points in three of the last four games and gave up 475 yards of total offense to a Niners team without Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams. However, Detroit’s D was opportunistic in the win, as Kerby Joseph picked off Brock Purdy twice, pushing his league-best total to nine.

Now we await the NFC North title game in Week 18 when the Lions host the Minnesota Vikings (+900 Super Bowl odds), who are also 14-2. The loser will be 14-3 and forced to go on the road throughout the playoffs as the No. 5 seed. The winner gets to rest on the bye as the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

Considering how well Sam Darnold has played this season, with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and Aaron Jones around him offensively, the Lions defense will need to come to play to claim the first No. 1 seed in franchise history.

Bills lock up No. 2 seed

The Bills are locked in as the AFC’s No. 2 seed after walloping the New York Jets to get to 13 wins for the third time under coach Sean McDermott. Josh Allen’s three scores on the day put him at 41 total touchdowns for the season (for an NFL record fifth-consecutive year) — another stat in his case to win MVP.

It was the same story for the Bills offense in 2024. In Week 17, nine players caught passes from Allen, and the Bills scored 30-plus points for the 12th time this year. Defensively, Buffalo was just as dominant, stifling Aaron Rodgers and holding the Jets to 281 total yards with four sacks and three turnovers.

Buffalo’s claim of the No. 2 seed before Week 18 means the Bills have options regarding how to approach the second matchup with the New England Patriots. How much do the Bills rest their starters?

Allen is slated to start for the 115th consecutive time, but even if he only plays one drive, the Bills can go into Week 18 knowing they have earned the right to be among the league’s favorites to win it all.

Eagles running with Barkley

Saquon Barkley’s quest for the NFL’s single-season rushing record fueled the Eagles as they knocked off the Dallas Cowboys to clinch the NFC East and get to 13-3. Barkley cracked the hallowed mark of 2,000 rushing yards, becoming the ninth player in NFL history to do so. He is now 101 yards away from surpassing Eric Dickerson for the single-season rushing crown.

Barkley has had a litany of MVP moments in 2024, but this week also boosted his case, considering his 167 rushing yards came with Jalen Hurts being out with a concussion. His replacement, Kenny Pickett, battled through broken ribs in the game, finishing with two scores. Third-string QB Tanner McKee saw action, too, throwing his first career touchdown in the win.

The Eagles entered Week 17 ranked No. 1 in total defense and lived up to the billing, holding a team under 10 points for the third time this season. In two games against the Cowboys, Philly has allowed a total of 13 points. In this second tilt against Dallas, the Eagles forced four turnovers, including two interceptions from C.J. Gardner-Johnson.

The question from here is whether the Eagles play their stars, including Saquon, in Week 18. You’ve got to think coach Nick Sirianni wants to give Barkley a chance at making NFL history, especially at the expense of the team that let Barkley go after six seasons this past March.

Ravens bank on Jackson’s dual-threat capability

Christmas Day was pleasant for the Ravens, who ran past the Houston Texans with the combination of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Jackson’s 255 total yards (168 passing, 87 rushing) and three scores combined with Henry’s 165 total yards (147 rushing) and his team record 16th total touchdown of the season helped Baltimore take a step closer to claiming a second straight AFC North title.

Jackson’s 2024 season continues to dazzle. He’s up to 4,807 total yards and 43 total scores, with 39 touchdown passes and four interceptions. For quarterbacks starting at least 10 games, Jackson’s season-long 121.6 passer rating is second to only Aaron Rodgers’ 2011 campaign. Oh yeah, and he still may be the league’s most dangerous player when he takes off with his legs.

 

The combination of Jackson, Henry, other complementary offensive pieces and an emerging defensive unit has Baltimore looking like one of the most complete teams.

The Ravens D did not yield a point in the game, stymied the Texans for 211 total yards, and frustrated C.J. Stroud with five sacks and an interception. Baltimore has allowed 33 points over the past three games and limited four of its last five opponents to under 300 yards of total offense.

But the Ravens will have to handle business in Week 18 as they prepare for the playoffs. Thankfully, they control their destiny; all they have to do is defeat (or even tie) the lowly Cleveland Browns to claim the AFC North. It may not be as easy as you would think, though, as one of the Browns’ three wins on the season came against the Ravens in Week 8.

(Photo of Jahmyr Gibbs: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)





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