Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is threatening to upend the New York governor’s race as she considers a challenge to Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) next year.
Stefanik has not confirmed that she’s running yet, but the possibility of her jumping in is already unsettling the GOP primary in the Empire State, where Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) had been seen as the most likely choice for the GOP nomination.
Republicans recognize the uphill battle Stefanik could have in the blue stronghold and say they’re hoping to avoid a divisive primary between Lawler and Stefanik, a top ally of President Trump, that could distract from focusing on Hochul and years of Democratic dominance of the state. Still, many in the party remain optimistic that they can pull off an upset after making inroads in 2022.
“In terms of fundraising organization and the ability to communicate a clear and concise message, there’s no Republican in New York that can do it like Elise Stefanik,” said New York Republican strategist Bill Cortese, a former adviser to Stefanik. “From her entire career, she has beat the odds and delivered, and I think that is why you saw her meteoric rise in Washington.”
Stefanik was first elected to represent New York’s 21st Congressional District in 2014, flipping her district red after a Democrat had held the seat for five years. She eventually rose to become one of Trump’s top allies on Capitol Hill and chair of the House Republican Conference, the fourth-highest ranking Republican in the body.
Her profile rose further in late 2023 for her questioning of three university presidents’ handling of the pro-Palestinian protests that took place on their campuses, establishing herself as a top supporter of Israel. She was set to become Trump’s United Nations ambassador, but her political future seemed uncertain after her nomination was pulled late last month given concerns about the narrow House Republican majority.
But reports of her possible gubernatorial candidacy have quickly energized Republicans in the past few days hoping she turns her attention to her home state at large.
Stefanik has said she wouldn’t rule anything out in her future, including a run for governor, and sounded like a possible candidate during a speech she gave Tuesday evening during a New York GOP dinner as she railed against Hochul, who has struggled with her favorability ratings.
She has said she’s honored to be in the mix with other possible candidates and further stoked speculation with a post on social media on Wednesday pointing to polling that she said suggests “we can WIN & SAVE NEW YORK.”
Some Republicans said Stefanik would clear the Republican field if she runs, as she enjoys strong popularity, is an effective fundraiser and is a close ally of Trump.
One GOP official said Stefanik is the most popular and most well-funded Republican official in New York and has an obligation to her district and Republicans at large to consider running.
Daivd Laska, the communications director for the New York GOP, called Stefanik a “Republican superstar” who would be a “phenomenal” candidate.
Former Rep. John Faso (R-N.Y.), who was the Republican nominee for governor in 2006 and sat next to Stefanik at the GOP dinner, said Stefanik is likely the “best known person in the state” of the possible candidates based on the events of the past year.
But Stefanik as the nominee would be a noticeable shift, as Lawler seemed to be on a clear track for the nomination just a week ago.
Lawler is another popular Republican who has crafted a reputation for himself as a moderate who won a tough battleground district in November despite being a top target for Democrats. He has increasingly played up his attacks on Hochul and seemed poised to enter the race.
Lawler praised Stefanik in a statement, calling her a “powerful leader” who still plays a key role in leading the conference.
“We both agree that Kathy Hochul is the worst Governor in America, bar none,” he said. “In 2026, New Yorkers have a chance to elect a strong, competent leader to move the state in a better direction. In the coming months the process will play out to ensure that Republicans have the strongest candidate possible.”
Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who also has cast himself as a strong supporter of Trump, has been another rumored candidate, possibly trying to run to Lawler’s right.
“The Republican Party in New York State is fortunate to have many exciting and capable candidates for statewide office,” Blakeman told local New York outlet Newsday.
Republicans said they viewed having multiple options as a positive sign that strong candidates are ready and the party can choose the best one to face off against Hochul. But they also said they hope to avoid a messy primary that could cause Republicans to focus money and time on attacking each other rather than Democrats.
“The great thing for the Republican Party is that we’re not casting around trying to find someone to run,” Faso said. “I think there are some really viable candidates that are potentially interested in running.”
Cortese said Republicans need to quickly unify around a single candidate and cannot afford a costly primary.
“We’ve seen from other races too, that there’s no need to spend money, time and resources on fighting each other, when really we need to come together, unify and find ways to hold all the Democrats accountable and Kathy Hochul accountable,” he said.
Meanwhile, Democrats say they’re not too worried about Stefanik running and expect a competitive primary in which the candidates are focused on gaining a coveted and influential endorsement from Trump.
“Elise Stefanik, Mike Lawler, and Bruce Blakeman are all jockeying for Donald Trump’s endorsement and putting their loyalty to his out-of-touch agenda above New Yorkers,” said New York State Democratic Party spokesperson Addison Dick, adding that “all of these MAGA minions face an uphill battle and would be rejected by New Yorkers next November.”
Hochul told reporters that the GOP nominee, no matter who it is, will be an “extreme MAGA Republican” and that she looks forward to the fight.
The governor has more recently taken on a larger national profile in opposing Trump, which polling has suggested at least the Democratic base wants to see more from their leaders.
But Republicans are bullish on building on the inroads that former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) made in 2022, when he lost only by 6 points, the best result for a Republican candidate since former Gov. George Pataki (R) won in 2002.
Despite Trump’s approval rating being poor in New York, Cortese argued that people’s beliefs about Trump are “baked into the cake” already and Republicans have been able to win even with Democratic attempts to tie them to Trump.
“Donald Trump being president does not give Albany Democrats an excuse for their failure to deliver, and we have seen in races all the way down the ballot… that people do care about who they’re electing, that the Donald Trump factor will always remain some sort of an issue, but it’s not some big drag that everyone likes to think it is,” he said.
He pointed to improvements that Trump had in 2024 in the state and even New York City, significantly in the Bronx.
But Republican strategist Jay Townsend expressed caution about a candidate like Stefanik.
“Elise’s trouble will be after she wins the party nod, which I think she can if she wants to, but she’s so far right that I’m not sure she’ll sell in New York,” he said.
But he speculated that even if Stefanik runs and loses, her political stock is likely on the upswing regardless as she could then join the Trump administration then, with Republicans not worried about losing her House seat.
“That’s a bit of a safety net for her,” he said.