NFL playoff picture live updates: Week 18 scores, schedule, inactives, predictions, odds

When assessing NFL MVP candidates one year ago, I lamented the dearth of candidates producing at levels high enough for consideration.

There’s no such problem as the 2024 MVP race enters its final stages.

Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Saquon Barkley are superstar talents whose conventional and/or advanced stats match historic standards for MVP consideration.

Jackson was my favorite when assessing the situation one month ago, partly because his production was allowing Baltimore to win despite terrible support from the Ravens’ defense and special teams. The picture looks different now. Allen and Burrow have surged. Barkley, having topped 2,000 yards rushing, fits into a different category as a non-quarterback. The best case for him goes well beyond statistics.

We’ll start with the quarterbacks because they are obviously most valuable. We’ll finish with the special case for Barkley, who has helped transform the most pass-oriented organization of the past quarter-century.

The best MVP candidates, in my view, are high-producing, dynamic QBs for teams that win despite lackluster support from their defenses and special teams. These are the ultimate win-because-of quarterbacks.

Patrick Mahomes has set the standard. He led the 2022 Kansas City Chiefs to Super Bowl glory after the team finished 29th in combined expected points added (EPA) on defense/special teams. He did this even though his defense/special teams failed to come alive in the playoffs the way Peyton Manning’s 2006 Super Bowl-winning Indianapolis Colts did after ranking 32nd in the regular season (in that case, Bob Sanders’ return to the defense helped Indy win it all despite Manning tossing three touchdown passes with seven interceptions in the postseason).

Mahomes proved to be the ultimate MVP. His case this season is tougher to make in the absence of elite statistical production, so he’s not part of this discussion, which focuses on betting favorites for the award (imagine if someone had told you before the season that Kansas City would take a 15-1 record into Week 18 without Mahomes — the preseason favorite at +500 — registering on the MVP radar).

Press play or drag the slider on the chart in this story to see how leading MVP candidates’ production and betting odds have shifted over the season, week by week. Burrow was far out of contention, as distant as +25000 three weeks ago and +15000 one week ago, until jumping to +2000 after Week 17’s overtime win over the Denver Broncos.