NFL playoff picture after Week 13: Steelers seize control of AFC North, Bills clinch AFC East

Quarterback Russell Wilson and the Pittsburgh Steelers offense erupted for 520 yards Sunday in their 44-38 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Paired with the Baltimore Ravens’ 24-19 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Steelers (9-3) are now the frontrunners in the AFC North, with the Ravens (8-5) trailing by two games in the loss column.

Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks were a comedy of errors on special teams on Sunday but still beat the Jets 26-21 and seized control of the NFC West, as the Arizona Cardinals fell 23-22 to the Minnesota Vikings. The 7-5 Seahawks now own a one-game edge over the 6-6 Cardinals and the 6-6 Los Angeles Rams while the San Francisco 49ers saw their playoff hopes all but disappear after falling to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday night.

As for the rest of the NFL, here’s where things stand in the playoff picture entering Week 14.

Listed odds to make the playoffs, secure the No. 1 seed and win the Super Bowl are all via The Athletic’s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock. 

x — Clinched playoff berth | z — Clinched division title | * — Clinched No. 1 seed

The Chiefs are 9-0 in one-possession games. Among them, they …

• beat the Ravens in Week 1 due to an overturned touchdown at the buzzer,

• beat the Bengals in Week 2 with a 51-yard field goal at the buzzer,

• beat the Falcons in Week 3 with a fourth-and-1 run stop in the red zone in the final minute,

• beat the Buccaneers in Week 9 with an overtime touchdown,

• beat the Broncos in Week 10 by blocking a 35-yard field goal attempt at the buzzer,

• beat the Panthers in Week 12 with a field goal at the buzzer from their backup kicker and

• beat the Raiders in Week 13 due to a botched snap in the final seconds

Rather than assuming the Chiefs will flip a switch this late in the season, maybe this is just who they are. They’re fearless in close games, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the best closer in the league. And even when they’re at their worst, they’ll let their opponents make the game-defining mistake. They might look vulnerable, but no one is going to look forward to drawing the Chiefs in January, except maybe the revenge-thirsty Bills.

Remaining schedule: vs. Chargers, at Browns, vs. Texans, at Steelers, vs. Broncos

Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 52.6% | To win Super Bowl: 15.2%

The Bills have been bullying teams throughout their impressive seven-game winning streak, scoring at least 30 points in their past six. They have a couple more tough opponents when they visit the Rams and Lions, so the Bills have a chance to make a statement before Christmas. More importantly, the Bills will keep themselves in position to take the No. 1 seed from the Chiefs.

Remaining schedule: at Rams, at Lions, vs. Patriots, vs. Jets, at Patriots

Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 43.8% | To win Super Bowl: 15.8%

WHAT THE?!?!?!?!

📺: #SFvsBUF on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/tO1I6KTQRM

— NFL (@NFL) December 2, 2024

Russell Wilson eradicated his recent struggles by hammering a beleaguered Bengals defense with 414 yards and three touchdowns. That’s probably not the most sustainable formula for Wilson and the Steelers, but it must be nice to know he still has a day like that in his bag. With an incredibly challenging closing stretch, the Steelers have an important rematch this week with the Browns after the AFC North rivals combined for one of the most fun Thursday night games of the season a couple of weeks ago.

Remaining schedule: vs. Browns, at Eagles, at Ravens, vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals

Odds: To make playoffs: 98.5% | To earn bye: 2.8% | To win Super Bowl: 3.7%

Russell Wilson on the move for the TD!

He’s got 361 yards and 3 TDs through 3Qs! 😮‍💨

🎥 @NFL pic.twitter.com/FInQFf9qJw

— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) December 1, 2024

They opened 5-1, including a tight victory against the Bills, but the Texans have since regressed. They aren’t in peril of losing their two-game lead over the Colts in the AFC South — although that’s been a familiar refrain among the division’s December leaders over the past two years — but there’s a bigger picture at play. The Texans appeared ready to elevate into a legitimate contender, but they’re now looking like a team that would be an underdog if they host the Steelers or Ravens in the wild-card round.

Remaining schedule: vs. Dolphins, at Chiefs, vs. Ravens, at Titans

Odds: To make playoffs: 97.6% | To earn bye: 0.3% | To win Super Bowl: 4.8%

The Chargers are 1-3 against teams that currently have a winning record, beating the Broncos way back in Week 6. They won’t have many chances to improve their résumé over the final month, but they do have a direct path to the playoffs, which would be their fourth postseason berth in the past 15 years.

Remaining schedule: at Chiefs, vs. Buccaneers, vs. Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders

Odds: To make playoffs: 94%| To earn bye: 0.5% | To win Super Bowl: 3.2%

When the Ravens are rolling, they have a unique ability to make their opponents look like the worst versions of themselves, as they did in blowouts against the Bills, Buccaneers and Broncos. More frequently, however, the Ravens play close games, and they’re 5-5 in one-possession tilts. The unexpected concern is Justin Tucker’s struggles. The All-Pro kicker missed two field goals and an extra point Sunday in the 24-19 loss to the Eagles, and he now has missed at least one field goal in all five of their defeats.

Remaining schedule: Bye, at Giants, vs. Steelers, at Texans, vs. Browns

Odds: To make playoffs: 96% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 4.7%

Lamar Jackson is nearly unbeatable against NFC teams, but the Philadelphia Eagles handed him just his second loss as a starter against an NFC opponent.

What do those losses have in common? Saquon Barkley. pic.twitter.com/OXzsYVS3NT

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) December 2, 2024

The Broncos, who are trying to get back to the playoffs for the first time in nine years, are 0-5 this season against teams that currently have a winning record. They’ve got a two-game cushion over the Colts for the final wild-card spot, but the schedule gets more difficult down the stretch. While the Broncos’ playoff credentials are open for interpretation at the moment, they’ll get a chance to earn their postseason bid over the next month.

Remaining schedule: Bye, vs. Colts, at Chargers, at Bengals, vs. Chiefs

Odds: To make playoffs: 67.9% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 1.9%

In the hunt

• Indianapolis Colts (6-7)
• Miami Dolphins (5-7)
• Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)
• Cleveland Browns (3-9)
• New York Jets (3-9)
• Tennessee Titans (3-9)
• Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)

Eliminated

• New England Patriots (3-10)
• Las Vegas Raiders (2-10)

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x — Clinched playoff berth | z — Clinched division title | * — Clinched No. 1 seed

The Lions’ 10-game winning streak is the longest in the league, and they’ve outscored their opponents by an astounding 180 points. They were the feel-good story entering the playoffs last season, but they’ll storm into January this time around as a legitimate Super Bowl threat. The injuries on defense are a concern, but the Lions have been good enough to use that as a way to gain valuable experience from their depth pieces.

Remaining schedule: vs. Packers, vs. Bills, at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings

Odds: To make playoffs: 99.9% | To earn bye: 53% | To win Super Bowl: 18.1%

Saquon Barkley has earned his MVP consideration, but there’s a bigger reason behind the Eagles’ eight-game winning streak. They had eight giveaways and lost the turnover battle in each of their first four games, opening with a 2-2 record. They’ve only given it away three times since and haven’t lost the turnover battle at any point during the streak.

Remaining schedule: vs. Panthers, vs. Steelers, at Commanders, vs. Cowboys, vs. Giants

Odds: To make playoffs: 99.9% | To earn bye: 38.5% | To win Super Bowl: 13.5%

DON’T LET SAQUON GET HOT.

📺: #PHIvsBAL on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/RxqsLUp7cc

— NFL (@NFL) December 1, 2024

The Seahawks overcame an all-time horrific performance on special teams to beat the Jets and maintain their perch atop the NFC West. Suffice to say, three fumbled kickoffs, a touchdown allowed on kick coverage and allowing a blocked extra point over the span of 10:46 won’t be a winning formula against a playoff-caliber opponent.

Remaining schedule: at Cardinals, vs. Packers, vs. Vikings, at Bears, at Rams

Odds: To make playoffs: 41% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 1.4%

With a three-game slide, the Falcons are the only team in the playoff picture with a losing streak, so they’re using up every bit of their tiebreaker against the Buccaneers. Just four weeks ago, the Falcons had a two-game lead with the head-to-head tiebreaker locked up against the Bucs, but they’re now both 6-6, and Tampa has an easier remaining schedule.

Remaining schedule: at Vikings, at Raiders, vs. Giants, at Commanders, vs. Panthers

Odds: To make playoffs: 62.5% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 1.9%

They’re well-coached, tough, really good on defense and have skill players who shine in clutch moments, which is a pretty nice recipe for going 7-1 in one-possession games. We’re about to get a really good read on the Vikings’ playoff chances, as they close the season against the Seahawks, Packers and Lions, although Detroit might be in position to spoil a fun matchup by resting its starters.

Remaining schedule: vs. Falcons, vs. Bears, at Seahawks, vs. Packers, at Lions

Odds: To make playoffs: 99.4% | To earn bye: 7% | To win Super Bowl: 5%

The Packers had already proven their ability to be a flashy team, but they were able to showcase their toughness during a one-sided drubbing of the Dolphins in the cold Lambeau atmosphere. They’ll have to take down the Lions on Thursday night to have any hope of catching the NFC North leaders.

Remaining schedule: at Lions, at Seahawks, vs. Saints, at Vikings, vs. Bears

Odds: To make playoffs: 97.1% | To earn bye: 1.4% | To win Super Bowl: 5.4%

The Commanders snapped their three-game losing streak by casually disposing of the Titans, so they’ll enter the bye week with a one-game advantage over the Cardinals (6-6) in the loss column. If the Commanders are as good as they showed during their 7-2 start, they’ll be able to navigate a tricky closing stretch and make the playoffs. But if they’re as inconsistent as they’ve been over the past month, it’ll be a tense final month.

Remaining schedule: Bye, at Saints, vs. Eagles, vs. Falcons, at Cowboys

Odds: To make playoffs: 79% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 1.6%

In the hunt

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)
• Arizona Cardinals (6-6)
• Los Angeles Rams (6-6)
• San Francisco 49ers (5-7)
• Dallas Cowboys (5-7)
• New Orleans Saints (4-8)
• Chicago Bears (4-8)
• Carolina Panthers (3-9)

Eliminated

• New York Giants (2-10)

(Photo of Russell Wilson: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)