NFL Week 8’s battle of the No. 1 and No. 2 draft picks didn’t just deliver on a dramatic level — it changed the odds. With that wild, now-viral Hail Mary pass in Week 8, Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (-400) cemented himself as the overwhelming favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
A signature play (and win) can do that for an award campaign, especially if the win comes at the expense of your nearest rival. Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is +950 behind Daniels.
The last-second Hail Mary from Daniels to lift the Commanders over the Bears certainly qualifies as an iconic moment, but it’s only the latest memorable game from Daniels to back up the outstanding start to his NFL career.
Daniels is undoubtedly the Rookie of the Year favorite. But the NFL has plenty of other contributing rookies making waves. Two other rookie starting quarterbacks are also winning games for playoff contenders. And a third tier of candidates offers a talented group of pass catchers to keep an eye on.
Only a handful of credible candidates remain for the AP’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award through eight weeks. Can anyone make up ground on Daniels?
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Sign Up
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds
The clear odds leader is Daniels (-400). Ridiculous two-way numbers separate the Washington quarterback from his rookie peers. Daniels is not only the Rookie of the Year favorite, but he’s currently fifth in MVP odds. Despite missing most of Week 7’s blowout win over Carolina with injury, Daniels is still 12th in passing (1,736 yards) and 23rd in rushing (424 yards) in the NFL — the only quarterback in the top 30 of both categories besides reigning MVP Lamar Jackson.
Most importantly, Washington is 6-2, leading the NFC East and rising rapidly in the overall league spotlight.
It’s worth noting that Daniels played through a rib injury against the Bears. As long as Daniels stays healthy and doesn’t miss more time with that injury, he should maintain a clear advantage. It would take the Commanders plummeting out of the playoff picture, or Daniels missing significant time with injury, for him to lose the pole position in this race.
Behind Daniels in the Rookie of the Year race is Williams (+950), the No. 1 overall pick. The Bears are over .500 at this point in the season, but Williams is still erratic under center. Williams didn’t have his best stuff in Week 8’s loss to Washington (10-for-24, 131 yards), snapping Chicago’s three-game winning streak.
Williams is 22nd in the league in passing (1,448 yards) and owns a respectable nine touchdown passes. His numbers aren’t nearly as consistent as Daniels. That’s no fault of Williams. He’s the league’s youngest quarterback and has the Bears fighting for a playoff spot. It just shows how strong Daniels looks after the opening stretch of play.
Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (+1500) presents an interesting case after an underrated October. Nix threw the most touchdown passes and passing yards among rookie QBs over the last month. The Broncos are in the midst of a solid 5-1 stretch over the last seven weeks after Nix delivered a sluggish start.
The numbers for Nix (1,530 yards, eight passing TDs) are comparable to Williams at this point, although the Broncos have played one more game than the Bears. Nix will be thoroughly tested with an upcoming stretch that includes Baltimore and Kansas City in the next two weeks. If Nix produces against elite playoff contenders, his odds could rise.
After the quarterbacks come the third-tier candidates. All four rookies have solid production, but none of them are impacting winning like the three quarterbacks atop the oddsboard.
Brian Thomas Jr. (+2000) is living up to the hype for the Jacksonville Jaguars. The wide receiver is sixth in the league in receiving yards (573) and is a constant big-play threat. Thomas has 33 catches, five touchdowns and an impressive 213 yards after the catch through eight games to add to a solid profile. The problem is Jacksonville is 2-6 and one of the league’s more disappointing teams. It’s hard to see Thomas becoming a threat for this award if the Jaguars are floundering.
New York Giants wideout Malik Nabers (+2500) and Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers (+2500) come in slightly behind Thomas.
Missing two games to a concussion was a setback for Nabers’ chances. Electric when healthy, Nabers is eighth in receptions (46) and 17th in receiving yards (498) in the NFL this season, even though he plays for an inconsistent Giants offense.
Playing through multiple starting quarterbacks and star wideout Davante Adams getting traded, Bowers regularly establishes monster numbers. Bowers leads the NFL with 52 receptions and sits 11th with 535 receiving yards. These are nearly unprecedented numbers for a rookie tight end, and only one touchdown is holding Bowers back from a stronger profile.
The longshot candidate to watch is Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (+4000). The numbers for Harrison (26 catches, 411 yards, five touchdowns) are solid. Chemistry with quarterback Kyler Murray has to improve for Harrison to maximize his numbers. Harrison and Murray have only connected on 26 of 50 targets so far this season.
(Photo of Jayden Daniels: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
