SUNRISE, Fla. — You’ve heard it before, seemingly countless times, but it’s still as true as ever: This is the most important game in the history of this Maple Leafs core.
The Leafs were humbled in Game 5 to the point that there are already serious doubts about the fate of this season — and about the future of the core of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner and John Tavares.
Still, Game 6 represents a chance: Come out with a spirited and productive win and the Leafs could remind a skeptical hockey world of their strengths. A win would get them to Game 7, where the storyline would be about yet another biggest game of an era.
For the time being, Game 6 is this core’s best opportunity to prove they have the moxie to win games when things look ugly. It’s the kind of win that has largely eluded them for years. It feels more than ever that pride is at stake.
Coach Craig Berube said he thought the Leafs were guilty of overthinking at the beginning of Game 5.
According to Simon Benoit, that shouldn’t be a problem tonight.
“I don’t think there’s much to overthink,” the Leafs defenceman said Friday. “It’s do or die for us tonight. There is not much to overthink. If we lose, we’re out. If we win, we continue. That’s how you see it. We gotta give everything we have tonight and we gotta come up with the win.”
The likely lines
Knies — Matthews — Marner
Holmberg — Tavares — Nylander
McMann — Domi — Pacioretty
Lorentz — Laughton — Järnkrok
McCabe — Tanev
Rielly — Carlo
Benoit — Ekman-Larsson
Woll
Murray
Berube has made some tweaks to his lineup for Game 6, but nothing major. He is sticking with Matthews and Marner together on the top line, betting that they will bounce back from their porous performance together in Game 5.
A tweak on the second line sees Pontus Holmberg join Tavares and Nylander in place of Max Pacioretty. That’s a matchup-based change, with that line likely to square off against Florida’s No. 1 line tonight. The Pacioretty-Tavares-Nylander trio struggled in that matchup in Games 3 and 4. Holmberg brings a lot more foot speed than Pacioretty can deliver at this point.
Berube evidently didn’t see enough from Nick Robertson and David Kämpf in Game 5 to keep them in the lineup for another game. Both are out for Holmberg and Calle Järnkrok, with Järnkrok rejoining Steven Lorentz and Scott Laughton on the line that figures to see a whole whack of defensive-zone face-offs. —Siegel
The big questions
Can the Leafs rise to the occasion?
After the Leafs’ embarrassing performance in Game 5, coupled with the fact the Panthers are at home, it’s easy to conclude this series is over. But it’s not.
Winning Games 6 and 7 to take a series is not an impossible feat. The Leafs core knows that too well: they had a 3-2 first round series lead against the Boston Bruins in 2019 before losing Games 6 and 7.
So it becomes a mental hurdle. Can the team avoid letting self-doubt creep in, treat Game 6 like it’s just one game to win and not let the moment overwhelm them? They’ve largely been written off. At this point, a full 60 minutes of relentless competitiveness would go a long way to winning back a beleaguered fanbase. That fanbase is clamouring for performances built on will as much as of skill.
The Leafs have to prove, when it matters, that they have just as much of the former as the latter. —Kloke
Will Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner bounce back?
It’s not often that Matthews and Marner get steamrolled like they did in Game 5 — not just in a lack of providing any offence, but by defensive play and puck possession metrics, as well.
Game 5 was completely one-sided in the wrong direction when they were on the ice.
All eyes will be on the pair tonight. Are they more forceful in their attack? Do they carry the puck with confidence, make plays, and put the Panthers on their heels? Does Matthews find the back of the net for the first time in this series and the first time in the playoffs, period, against the Panthers? Does Marner help him do it? These are two of the Leafs’ three best players. The time is now for them to show it. —Siegel
Can Joseph Woll recreate his Game 4 performance?
To be sure: the Leafs’ Game 5 loss and any potential Game 6 bounce-back falls on the shoulders of the entire team, not one player. But for the Leafs to have a chance on the road against the Panthers, they’ll need the best from one player who has had some of the best performances of his career in Sunrise: their goalie of the future, Joseph Woll.
Remember Game 4 in 2023? Woll kept the Leafs season alive by stopping 24 of 25 shots. And in Game 4 this year, Woll stepped into the limelight with an impressive 35-save effort.
The Leafs will need Woll even more considering that Sergei Bobrovsky has apparently found his playoff form. Woll giving the Leafs a chance to win could alleviate some of the pressure from the Leafs’ core players. Even with the chatter about whether a healthy Anthony Stolarz could have changed the course of the series, Woll having himself another game in Florida would remind onlookers of how his strong mental state can help sway the Leafs’ fortunes. —Siegel
How to watch
The puck drops in Florida at 8 p.m. (ET) on Sportsnet, CBC, TVAS, TNT, TruTV and Max.
(Photo of Joseph Woll: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)