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Last night, we saw quintessential Jameis Winston (497 yards, four TDs and three INTs, including two pick-sixes) and a record-setting, 235-yard Jerry Jeudy revenge game as the Browns lost to the Broncos in a 41-32 thriller. Key takeaways here.
And just like that, we’re onto Week 14. Today:
- Playoff picture, with injury context
- Be patient with Ben Johnson
- Fantasy plays for crunch time
- Power Rankings
Playoff Brackets: Reinforcements on the way
A 2021 study on how injuries affect winning in the NFL found that non-playoff teams averaged 7.7 more games missed by offensive or defensive starters than their playoff-bound counterparts, and that the most injured teams typically drafted six spots higher than the healthiest teams.
This confirms what most of us have long suspected: The best ability is availability.
This is good news for teams in the current playoff picture, each of whom happen to have recently welcomed back an injured starter or have one scheduled to return.
Below, we’re looking at the updated brackets while listing each team’s most timely return. Let’s start with the AFC:
No.1 Chiefs (11-1): WR Marquise “Hollywood” Brown (shoulder) — their biggest offseason free agent signing — has yet to play a regular-season snap. The Chiefs are optimistic that he will begin practicing in mid-December, and he could play as early as Week 16. This comes after DE Charles Omenihu (seven sacks in 11 games last season) and RB1 Isiah Pacheco returned last week. They’ve already clinched a playoff spot.
No. 2 Bills (10-2): On Sunday, All-Pro LB Matt Milano made his first appearance since an offseason biceps tear. As Joe Buscaglia noted in his Week 13 Bills observations, Milano’s value comes from “his ability to bridge the gap between being able to defend the run on first and second down while being an asset in coverage in obvious passing situations, without the team sacrificing any size.” They can ease him in after clinching the division title.
No. 3 Steelers (9-3): No. 2 pass-rusher Alex Highsmith (ankle) has missed the past three weeks. Playing across from T.J. Watt, he recorded 10 QB hits and three sacks in just six games this year, and is PFF’s fifth-highest graded edge rusher since Week 7. Pittsburgh is 6-0 with him in the lineup and expects him back for Week 14.
No. 4 Texans (8-5): The return of superstars WR Nico Collins and DE Will Anderson have been critical as Houston looks to hold off the surging Colts (6-7) for the AFC South crown. They should also see the return of starting safety Jalen Pitre — a top-20 safety by PFF grade — in the next week or two, but will likely be without LB Azeez Al-Shaair, who is expected to be suspended for Sunday’s late hit on Trevor Lawrence.
No. 5 Chargers (8-4): RB J.K. Dobbins will miss at least three more games, with his earliest possible return coming in Week 17 against the Patriots. Just as concerning is the report that their most productive WR, rookie Ladd McConkey (knee), is not guaranteed to practice this week and is in danger of missing Sunday’s game in Kansas City.
No. 6 Ravens (8-5): Ageless pass rusher Kyle Van Noy has eight sacks and two forced fumbles in just 10 starts. Sunday’s loss to the Eagles was his first missed game this year (hamstring/neck), but after John Harbaugh called it “touch-and-go,” I’d expect he returns this week.
No. 7 Broncos (8-5): The importance of starting cornerback Riley Moss (knee) was evident in last night’s game, with Jameis Winston consistently finding open receivers against the Broncos’ Moss substitute, Levi Wallace.
Wallace allowed five catches for 137 yards and a touchdown in his direct coverage, and the typically stout defense struggled to stop the pass. They’ll be praying for a healthy Moss following their bye.
As for the NFC:
No. 1 Lions (11-1): We could’ve lost Jahmyr Gibbs to team-imposed discipline after the 22-year-old star RB accidentally revealed Detroit’s protections in a Snapchat video. Thankfully, HC Dan Campbell isn’t panicking: “I don’t really give a crap. I mean, if we’re gonna lose because of code words, then we’re not good enough anyway. So, I think we’ll just post the whole freaking playbook out there.”
No. 2 Eagles (10-2): 2021’s No. 10 pick, WR DeVonta Smith, has missed the past two weeks with a hamstring injury. The Eagles — winners of eight straight — should get back their most reliable over-the-middle target this week against the Panthers.
No. 3 Seahawks (7-5): How’s this for a quick return: DK Metcalf missed two plays during Sunday’s win, as he was cleared by trainers after tweaking his knee. I don’t expect him to miss a pivotal Week 14 game in Arizona.
No. 4 Falcons (6-6): The absence of CB2 Mike Hughes (neck) — an above-average talent having an excellent season — has hurt Atlanta, which has lost the three games he’s missed. He practiced in full last Friday, and should return for Kirk Cousins’ homecoming against the Vikings this Sunday.
No. 5 Vikings (10-2): CB Stephon Gilmore suffered a hamstring injury that held him out of the second-half of Sunday’s game. It’s not expected to be long term, but he is questionable for Week 14. Thankfully, Sam Darnold keeps rolling.
No. 6 Packers (9-3): Star CB Jaire Alexander (knee) has missed most of the past five weeks but has practiced over the past few days; there’s hope they have him for this Thursday’s game against Detroit. (Also, a moment to appreciate that this 9-3 team is only in sixth place! For at least this season, third in the NFC North should be arbitrarily crowned NFC South champs.)
No. 7 Commanders (8-5): The biggest trade-deadline acquisition – star CB Marshon Lattimore — is “certainly trending” to make his Washington debut after the bye, for his Week 15 revenge game in New Orleans. Finally.
What Dianna’s Hearing: Why Ben Johnson remains in Detroit
On today’s episode of the “Scoop City” podcast, we were joined by The Athletic senior writer Mike Silver to discuss, among other things, his recent feature on Jared Goff. More specifically, co-host Chase Daniel and I wanted intel on the man who helped rebuild Goff into an MVP candidate: Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson.
Mike: “People thought he’d go to Carolina; he didn’t take that job. People thought he took that Washington job; he didn’t. I think he doesn’t like the presumption that he’s doing something. He doesn’t like, during the season, being talked about, let alone being contacted. He just wants to coach and try to help the Lions.
Mike: “And he said something really cool: ‘I was an assistant in Miami for years. I was an assistant here under Matt Patricia. I haven’t really had very many winning seasons in this league until now. I want to experience what that is, and I’ve learned from Dan Campbell.’ I guess the last thing I’d say: I do think he’s going to be a good head coach when he decides to do it, but I wouldn’t assume anything when it comes to him.”
🎧 Elsewhere in the “Scoop City” podcast: How messed up are things in Chicago?
Back to you, Jacob.
Fantasy reset: Week 13 waivers, buys and sells
Last week, we highlighted unknown Raiders RB Sincere McCormick as a deep league add. He took 12 carries for 64 yards, pacing his team in rushing against a stout Chiefs defense. The Week 14 must-adds are more obvious:
No. 1: 49ers RB Isaac Guerendo. He’s the no-doubt, spend-your-waiver-cash, potential league-winning pickup. That’s because both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason are heading to the IR, which will keep them out through the fantasy playoffs. In the rookie’s only game as the team’s leading runner, he posted 19.2 fantasy points.
No. 2: Panthers WR Adam Thielen. I almost didn’t include him here and was shocked at how available he is in most leagues. The veteran should’ve had two touchdowns, but finished with eight catches for 99 yards and a TD, good for 23.9 PPR fantasy points. He’s easily a must-start amid Bryce Young’s improvement, even facing the Eagles (sixth-fewest points allowed to receivers).
No. 3: Titans WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. I refused to acknowledge his TD-dependent production, but eight targets and 21.1 fantasy points in Week 13 — together with an 18 percent target share since DeAndre Hopkins left, plus upcoming matchups against the Jaguars, Bengals and Colts — convinced me that he’s worth an add.
No. 4: Saints TE Juwan Johnson. With do-it-all TE Taysom Hill out for the year, Johnson steps up as a viable option in a barren tight end landscape. This week’s matchup against the Giants is scary — they allow the second-fewest points to tight ends — so temper expectations, but he is a viable streamer, given New Orleans’ limited options for QB Derek Carr.
Deeper leagues: Jaguars WR Parker Washington led the team in targets (12), posted 20-plus fantasy points and is a borderline starter now. Panthers TE Tommy Tremble caught five passes for 77 yards last week, but is a streamer only if TE J’Tavion Sanders remains out (the latter is expected back). Chargers RB Kimani Vidal averaged five yards per carry on four touches and could see an uptick in touches if Ladd McConkey (knee) misses time.
For more: Read Jake Ciely’s Week 14 Waiver Wire column.
Yesterday’s most-clicked: The brutal, late hit on Trevor Lawrence, for which Texans’ Azeez Al-Shaair later apologized.
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