Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) is predicting that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will remain in the top job for six years.
The forecast from Gingrich — who wielded the gavel from 1995 to 1999 — comes days after Johnson was re-elected Speaker on the first ballot, and months after he beat back an ouster effort that was brought by a small group of hardline Republicans.
“Six years. That’s a guess. I mean I just think he’ll get tired after about six years,” Gingrich told The Hill during an interview on Wednesday.
“We have a group of contrarians who wake up every morning saying, ‘I’m voting no. What’s the issue?’ And so managing that, and I have to say having done this job, my admiration for Johnson is unending,” Gingrich added. “To have a one vote or two vote majority, to have the patience of Job, to listen to every single person, to endure people who basically say to you, ‘You know, I’d like to help you, but I really can’t help you. But I’m sure you understand that while I’m killing your speakership, that I’m only doing it because I have no choice, because otherwise I’d feel bad,’ when you watch that, you have to say to yourself, he just keeps walking forward.”
Gingrich later couched his prediction, saying he believed Johnson would remain in the top job for “four to six years.”
Six years with the gavel would track longer than most recent Republican Speakers. Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) served 269 days in the top job before being ousted, former Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) held the gavel for just over three years, and former Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) was in the job for four years and nine months.
It is not, however, unheard of in the past half century. Former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) held the gavel for eight years, from 1999 until 2007.
Johnson has served as Speaker since October 2023, filling the top job after a small band of Republicans, joined by Democrats, voted to oust McCarthy. After cycling through three other candidates, House Republicans installed Johnson to the job.
The Louisiana Republican, who previously served as vice chair of the House GOP conference, has traversed a number of landmines since receiving the gavel, including votes to send aid to Ukraine, reauthorize the U.S.’s warrantless spying powers, and fund the government.
Johnson has prevailed despite skepticism — and at times opposition — from hardline Republicans, including in May after Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) brought a motion to vacate against the Speaker, which failed after Democrats and most Republicans voted to table the effort. And last week, Johnson won the Speakership on the first ballot despite some skepticism among hardline Republicans.
Gingrich called Johnson “smart” and lauded his ability to learn on the job.
“What people underestimate is he’s really smart and maybe a better learner than any of the previous Republican speakers, including me,” Gingrich said. “Ryan is smart, Boehner was a very shrewd politician, but the fact is that there’s a there’s a quality that Johnson has of quietly listening to everybody and then thinking about it, that I think is pretty remarkable.”
Gingrich has spoken highly of Johnson in the past, praising his ability to lead the ideologically diverse House GOP conference. Last month, the former Speaker endorsed Johnson for another stint wielding the gavel, telling John Catsimatidis on his radio show that he is “doing an extraordinary job.”
“I tell everybody, I was a pretty effective Speaker. I could never do his job. He has no margins. Any two or three members can rebel at any moment,” Gingrich added.
In November, he said Johnson had “the hardest job in Washington today.”
