©  Frank Franklin II and Jose Luis Magana, Associated Press

The presidential and vice presidential candidates are criss-crossing the Rust Belt with just more than a month to go in the White House race, as crises unfold at home and abroad that could impact the electoral outcome.

• Former President Trump will campaign Thursday in Saginaw, Mich. His running mate Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) headlines events Wednesday in Auburn Hills, Mich., and Marne, Mich.

• Vice President Harris will campaign in Wisconsin Thursday, followed by a trip to Detroit and Flint, Mich., on Friday. VP pick Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) is embarking on a bus tour across Pennsylvania.

The race could not be much closer in those “Blue Wall” battlegrounds. According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ averages, any of those three states could go either way:

MI: Harris +0.5

PA: Harris +0.9

WI: Harris +1.1

One dynamic to watch as the race closes…

• A new poll finds Trump narrowly leading Harris among Arab Americans.

• Democrats typically enjoy a 2-1 advantage here, but frustration with the Biden administration’s handling of the war in Gaza appears to be weighing on Democrats.
• That could matter in Michigan, as the Detroit-metro area boasts the largest population of Arab Americans in the nation.

What’s left that could alter the dynamics of the race in the final month?

• There will almost certainly be no more debates. Harris wants another crack at Trump, but the former president reiterated Tuesday night that he’s “not looking to do that again.”

• Trump also pulled out of an interview with “60 Minutes,” saying the news organization never apologized to him for characterizing damaging information from Hunter Biden’s laptop as Russian disinformation. Harris will push ahead with her planned interview with “60 Minutes.”

If Tuesday night’s debate ends up being the final one of the cycle, Republicans are feeling good about it, even if vice presidential debates have in the past proved inconsequential.

• Vance is getting rave reviews for his debating skills. He showed a more empathetic side that many in the public had not seen before.

• Vance acknowledged the GOP needs to recalibrate its message on abortion. Shortly after, Trump made news by saying he’d veto a national abortion ban.

• Walz had a few rocky moments. He appeared nervous at the start, and he had probably the worst moment of the night for either candidate when he was unable to explain why he had falsely claimed to have been in Hong Kong for the Tiananmen Square massacre.

• But snap polls found the candidates fought to a draw, and the Harris campaign believes Walz’s exchange with Vance over the Jan. 6 riot will have legs.

• The Harris campaign has already cut Vance’s “damning non answer” into a campaign ad.

With no more debates and the race effectively knotted in a tie, all eyes turn to the external factors that could impact the dwindling number of undecided voters.

The domestic and international crises unfolding — and how the White House and campaigns respond to them — could play a decisive factor heading into the final stretch:

• The dockworkers strike is poised to have an enormous impact on the economy if it’s not resolved quickly.

• Israel and Iran are on the brink of war as the one-year anniversary of the Oct. 7 attacks grows near.

• Citizens in six states, including three battlegrounds, are picking up the pieces as search and rescue efforts continue in the wake of Hurricane Helene.

Perspectives:

• The Wall Street Journal: Vance makes better case for Trump than Trump does.
• The Hill: Who was the JD Vance voters saw at the debate?
• The Washington Post: A polite night of substantive debating.
• The Los Angeles Times: Vance won and it wasn’t close.
• Vox: Walz won the only moment that mattered. 

Read more:

• Takeaways from the VP debate.
• The best and worst moments for each candidate.
• Walz clarifies ‘friends with school shooters’ gaffe.
• Democrats see signs of growing momentum in Texas Senate race.

Welcome to Evening Report! I’m Jonathan Easley, catching you up from the afternoon and what’s coming tomorrow. Not on the list? Subscribe here.

• Betting on U.S. elections is legal, a federal appeals court ruled.

• U.S. job openings rose unexpectedly in August, as the labor market continued to show resilience.

• Judge Aileen Cannon set a trial date of Nov. 18 for Ryan Routh, the man accused of trying to assassinate former President Trump on his golf course.

• Special counsel Jack Smith has laid out his pathway for pursuing the election interference case against Trump following the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling. 

©  Jeff Roberson, Associated Press

The Biden administration is ramping up efforts to deliver aid to the thousands of people in six states that remain displaced or without power in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene.

• President Biden directed the Defense Department to deploy up to 1,000 active-duty soldiers Wednesday to “support the delivery of food, water, and other critical commodities to communities impacted by Hurricane Helene.”

• Biden toured storm damage in North Carolina and South Carolina, while Vice President Harris is on the ground in Georgia.

• Biden will travel Thursday to view impacted regions in Georgia and Florida. 

Senators from the six states that faced the most devastation — Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia and Tennessee — wrote a letter to Congressional leaders Wednesday pleading for lawmakers to return to Washington to pass a disaster funding bill.

“Although the true level of devastation is still unfolding, it is clear that Congress must act to meet the unmet needs in our states and address the scope and scale of destruction experienced by our constituents,” the lawmakers wrote. “This may even require Congress to come back in October to ensure we have enough time to enact legislation before the end of this calendar year.”

Lawmakers from Virginia are also asking the Biden administration to declare a disaster declaration to unlock additional federal funds.

It seems unlikely right now that Congress will return to pass a disaster funding bill. Government officials and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) believe there is enough money in the three-month stopgap government funding bill to last until the next funding fight in December.

Read more:

• Musk sending Starlink terminals to storm-ravaged North Carolina.
• White House approves Georgia disaster declaration.
• Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) assists with Helene response in North Carolina.
• The hurricane that threatens to sink Asheville’s feel-good success.

©  Associated Press/Eduardo Munoz Alvarez

The International Longshoremen’s Association is on its second day of a strike, cutting the nation’s shipping in half and costing the U.S. economy an estimated $4.5 billion a day.

• A prolonged strike could snarl supply chains and lead to rising prices for consumer goods.

The conflict would appear to put the White House in a tough spot, as President Biden and Vice President Harris seek to stand with their union allies, but fear economic damage ahead of the election.

But Harris on Wednesday announced her unequivocal support for the port workers, while knocking former President Trump.

“This strike is about fairness. Foreign-owned shipping companies have made record profits and executive compensation has grown. The Longshoremen, who play a vital role transporting essential goods across America, deserve a fair share of these record profits,” Harris said in a statement.

“[Trump] wants to pull us back to a time before workers had the freedom to organize,” Harris added, arguing that he makes “empty promises” to workers but “never delivers.”

Biden has also pressured employers to raise their offer to the union, which counts 45,000 members. The union is seeking a pay hike, as well as protections against emerging technologies. 

The 2024 cycle has found Trump doing better among union households than any GOP candidate in modern times, underscored by the Teamsters decision to not back the Democratic nominee in this election.

The Hill’s Tobias Burns has 5 things you should know about the strike:

• The longshoreman are seeking better pay and protections against automation.
• A weekslong strike could hit the economy hard.
• The strike puts Biden in tough spot with labor.
• Biden could invoke a law from 1947 known as Taft-Hartley to force members back to work, but he’s not considering it at this time.
• The strike follows several big wins for labor unions.

Read more: 

• All of the products that will be impacted by the strike.
• Longshoremen strike for the first time since 1977.
• The profane 78-year old leading the strike.
• Business coalition urges Biden to end the strike.

The Middle East is once again on the brink.

President Biden said Tuesday’s attack by Iran was “defeated and ineffective,” with only one death reported after Iran fired some 200 missiles into Israel in response to the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Israel’s “Iron Dome” defense system intercepted most of the missiles, but one man in the West Bank was killed by falling debris.

• The White House said Iran can expect “severe consequences” for the attack.
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran made “a big mistake” and that they “will pay for it.”
• The U.S. is deploying more assets to the region.

Former President Trump blasted Biden and Vice President Harris on social media, saying the conflict is due to their weakness on the world stage.

“Look at the World today — Look at the missiles flying right now in the Middle East, look at what’s happening with Russia/Ukraine, look at Inflation destroying the World. NONE OF THIS HAPPENED WHILE I WAS PRESIDENT!” he wrote in a post on Truth Social.

The Hill’s Ellen Mitchell writes  that a potential peace deal is now in tatters:

“The Biden administration may be hard-pressed to now broker a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon in the wake of Tuesday’s events.”

Read more: 

• Harris’s defense credentials get fresh scrutiny.
• Iran attacks ratchet up Middle East conflict.
• GOP leaders press Biden administration to get tougher on Iran.
• U.S. gas prices could increase following Iranian strike on Israel.
• 6 people killed in Tel Aviv shooting attack.
• Israel announces deaths of 8 soldiers in Lebanon.
• Democrats more likely to be critical of Israel.
• Israeli approval of U.S. leadership drops.

“What exactly are we fighting about?,” by John Halpin for The Liberal Patriot.

“Who are the undecided voters?,” by Rick Perlstein for The American Prospect.

“The elite college students who can’t read books,” by Rose Horowitch for The Atlantic. 

34 days until the 2024 general election.   

110 days until Inauguration Day 2025.

Thursday

• Trump campaigns in Michigan.
• Harris campaigns in Wisconsin.

There a story you think should be getting more attention? Something people should be talking about? Drop me a line: jeasley@thehill.com

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