“A shutdown is aligned with the goals of DOGE,” says Don Moynihan, a professor of public policy at the University of Michigan. “In the president’s executive order, he told DOGE to focus on nonessential employees, which is to say employees who are designated as nonessential during government shutdowns.”
Only one partial government shutdown, in the winter of 2018–19, has lasted more than 30 days. A report from the Congressional Budget Office later estimated that the 35-day shutdown “delayed $18 billion in federal spending and suspended some federal services, thus lowering the projected level of real GDP in the first quarter of 2019 by $8 billion.”
But for the most part, if a possible shutdown does last longer than 30 days, the US could enter into unknown territory. “One difficulty in assessing what will happen is that there have only been 10 shutdowns that have resulted in furloughs in US history,” Bednar says. “Most of the case law we have on this issue comes from the 2013 shutdown, which was less than 30 days.”
During the 2013 government shutdown, employees who tried to challenge their agencies’ furloughs and sued for back pay almost universally lost their cases. Bednar says, however, that if the Trump administration tries to use a government shutdown as an excuse to permanently eliminate jobs, employees might be able to appeal the decision.
“I suspect the greatest impact of a long-term shutdown is that it will encourage federal employees to leave public service sooner rather than later,” says Bednar. “Even though federal law permits back pay, federal employees still need to pay for rent, groceries, and other essentials. The Trump administration could use an extended furlough to squeeze employees from their positions.”
The White House believes that the lone holdout on the bill to avoid a shutdown will be Representative Thomas Massie, a Republican from Kentucky, who has firmly stated that he will not support the continuing resolution. Trump railed against Massie in a late-night post on Monday on Truth Social while trying to simultaneously praise the House Freedom Caucus—of which Massie is a member—for holding the line.
“Thank you to the House Freedom Caucus for just delivering a big blow to the Radical Left Democrats and their desire to raise Taxes and SHUT OUR COUNTRY DOWN! They hate America and all it stands for,” Trump wrote, before calling for a primary challenge to Massie, who has prevailed over similar calls in the past. Later in the post, Trump wrote “DO I HAVE ANY TAKERS??? Anyway, thank you again to the House Freedom Caucus for your very important vote. We need to buy some time in order to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, GREATER THAN EVER BEFORE. Unite and Win!!!”
If the continuing resolution passes, that would not take the issue off the table entirely, as it would only fund the government through September.
Additional reporting by Tim Marchman.
Correction: 3/12/2024, 4:35 pm ET: This story has been corrected to accurately describe the rules around emergency furloughs and federal reductions in force.
