Elements of the German car industry pushed hard last year for ICE cars to be allowed to remain on sale in the EU after 2035 – and they got their way, provided such cars use only carbon-neutral fuels.
But that might not be enough, said BMW Group CEO Oliver Zipse.
Unless the EU accelerates the availability of such fuels, it will amount to “a deliberate ban on [ICEs] through the back door”.
The problem here (if you want to perceive it as such) is that the car industry is, despite what some will tell you, actually moving quickly. Too quickly for synthetic e-fuels to arrive in large quantities and at sensible cost.
The EU requires that “all new cars and vans registered in the [EU] market are zero-emission by 2035” and that “average emissions of new cars come down by 55% by 2030” from 2021’s level.
Vans get only a slightly easier time on the rate of reduction, while discussions about heavy road haulage are still ongoing.
(The UK’s regulations are different, more stringent again and, unlike EU laws, mandate percentages of car sales being zero-emission, which is why we are now seeing and will continue to see market disruption and distortion, such as firms selling electric cars at losses and Suzuki becoming unable to sell its lightweight superminis.)
Other transport industries are moving at a slower pace – understandably, given the lifespans and costs of the vehicles involved and the inviability of battery electrification.
Within the EU, aerospace companies need to reduce their CO2 emissions by 20% by 2035, by which time passenger jets must use a blend of 5% synthetic fuel. Maritime companies must achieve a 14.5% CO2 reduction by 2035, although they have no requirement for synthetic fuel use.
No such requirements yet exist for vehicles used in off-highway agriculture and construction, but they will surely come at some point. The presumed answer for applications where battery electrification isn’t viable – which is on most of those heavy-duty, high-altitude or long-distance trips – will be synthetic fuels.
“Aviation will use jet fuel indefinitely,” said Paddy Lowe, CEO of British firm Zero Petroleum, which has begun making small quantities of synthetic gasoline, diesel and jet fuel without using fossil fuels, instead utilising CO2 from the air and hydrogen from water.
