On Feb. 17, Notre Dame ascended to the No. 1 team in the country in the AP poll for the first time since 2018. Since then, the Irish have dropped three of their last five games, eliminating their chances for an outright ACC regular-season title and a second straight conference tournament crown.
The latest defeat came in a particularly dispiriting fashion, as Notre Dame’s offense fell apart in a 61-56 defeat to Duke in the ACC semifinals. The Blue Devils used a 9-0 run spanning the third and fourth quarters to take control after neither team had led by more than 5 to that point. Despite having more turnovers than made field goals, Duke limited the Irish to 37.5 percent shooting and only three made 3s from the team that leads the country in 3-point percentage. Notre Dame never even had the ball with a chance to tie the score in the final period.
The Blue Devils will play in the conference championship for the first time since 2017, while the Irish are left to wonder what has gone wrong and how they can regroup for the Big Dance.
How Notre Dame got here
Notre Dame lost its first two games of the season in a Thanksgiving tournament in the Cayman Islands but proceeded to reel off a 19-game win streak, including victories over Texas, UConn, UNC and Duke. The Irish welcomed back frontcourt players Liza Karlen and Maddy Westbeld during that stretch, giving a team that has struggled with depth issues for the majority of coach Niele Ivey’s tenure a solid eight-player rotation.
Olivia Miles, Hannah Hidalgo and Sonia Citron were named finalists for the best point guard, shooting guard and small forward in the country this week, but the trio hasn’t been able to click simultaneously. Hidalgo shot below 40 percent over the final month of the regular season just as Citron started a streak of six straight double-digit scoring outputs. Opponents have been targeting Miles and Westbeld in the pick-and-roll, which the Blue Devils did to great effect Saturday, forcing Ivey to rely on a heavy diet of zone defense.
Individually, none of Notre Dame’s losses are terribly concerning. It lost in double overtime on the road to NC State, which made the Final Four a year ago. It allowed 13 fourth-quarter points to Ta’Niya Latson, who led the country in scoring, to lose to Florida State. And it failed to score effectively against Duke, which boasts a top-20 defense.
Collectively, however, the defeats paint a picture of a team that doesn’t have the consistency and upside of a national title threat. And that is the only goal that matters for a program as historically successful as Notre Dame.
In the eight seasons from 2010 to 2018, the Fighting Irish made the Final Four seven times, advancing to the title game in six of those seasons. When the 2021 recruiting class arrived on campus — Ivey’s first class — hopes were high that a similar level of achievement would occur with Miles (No. 8 player in the class) and Citron (No. 16 player in the class), as well as Westbeld. But for three consecutive tournaments, their seasons have ended in the Sweet 16.
Urgency is key for this group if it wants to lead Notre Dame back to the Final Four. Westbeld’s and Citron’s eligibility expires after this season. Miles could return, though she’s projected as the No. 2 pick in the upcoming 2025 WNBA Draft. Grad transfer Liatu King, the program’s leading rebounder with 11 per game, will also exhaust her eligibility after this season. Talent will return next season, led by Hidalgo, but the core of this team will be moving on at the close of the season.
How did Duke pull off the upset?
The Blue Devils have relied on their bench production all season, and their semifinal victory was no different. Oluchi Okananwa, the 2024 ACC sixth player of the year, was relentless in attacking the basket as a scorer and a rebounder. She was perfect from the field and the foul line as she led Duke with 14 points, and her three offensive rebounds understate the effort she put in tipping extra possessions to her teammates. Okananwa changed the game with her motor, essentially sealing the win with a transition layup to put the Blue Devils up 6 with 1:14 to play.
Vanessa de Jesus also chipped in steady ballhandling and point-of-attack defense off the bench. The redshirt senior has seen her role waver but helped keep Duke composed early before its pressure wore down the Irish.
Kara Lawson had an outstanding game plan ready for Notre Dame less than three weeks after their first meeting. The Blue Devils targeted the weak points in the Irish defense (Miles and Westbeld) and dominated the glass. They also stymied Notre Dame’s half-court execution by limiting entry passes and lobs into the post. The Irish repeatedly turned the ball over trying to get it inside and couldn’t find alternatives to breaking the paint.
What does this mean for Notre Dame’s NCAA Tournament seeding?
In all likelihood, the Fighting Irish should stay on the two line for the NCAA Tournament. Had Notre Dame swept through the ACC tournament and won the title, there certainly would’ve been a conversation to be had about the potential of moving to a No. 1 seed. But with this result and how the season ended for the Fighting Irish, it seems fair to assume they won’t move up.
Should the Irish be worried?
One area of huge improvement for Notre Dame this season has been its 3-point shooting. Miles improved her long-range shooting from 23 percent last season to 41 percent this season, and Hidalgo improved hers from 34 percent to 41 percent. That, paired with the consistent long-range shooting of Maddy Westbeld (38 percent) and Sonia Citron (38 percent), has made it challenging for opponents to slow the offensive firepower of the Irish.
However, in the past few weeks, there have been some 3-point struggles. In a late February loss to NC State, those four combined shot 7-of-22 from range. Four days later, in a loss to Florida State, they combined to shoot 4-of-11 (but with Hidalgo and Miles going 0-for-5). Against Duke, the team shot 20 percent from beyond the arc, with those four players knocking down just 3 of 14 attempts from range.
Getting their 3-point shooting back on track for the NCAA Tournament will be key. The Irish’s offense is at its best when it’s creating points in transition and stretching the floor with its plethora of weapons on the perimeter.
Required reading
(Photo of Hannah Hidalgo and Jadyn Donovan: Cory Knowlton / Imagn Images)
