PHOENIX — It’s a numbers game at this point for the National League West. That much is clear as the Los Angeles Dodgers depart Chase Field for what could be the final time this regular season, having created some breathing room — a five-game lead with 24 games remaining.
According to FanGraphs, their odds of winning the division are 93.4 percent. If the Dodgers wind up having to come back here this year, they’d rather have home-field advantage.
That was encouraging. Jack Flaherty allowed just one run in 5 2/3 innings Monday. Freddie Freeman homered for the third and fourth time in four games since returning from his hiatus. Shohei Ohtani swiped three bases. Mookie Betts drove in three. Teoscar Hernández collected five hits.
An 11-6 win also secured a safety button in case of emergency: In clinching the season series against the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Dodgers clinched the tiebreaker between the two sides for the division.
“I think there’s no secret going into this whole series, like how important everything is and how important each and every game is, especially when you get in September,” Flaherty said. “There’s no secrets. Everybody knows.”
Given the last four days, the difference between a four-game lead and a five-game lead — and a tiebreaker or not — was huge. This is not the unbalanced matchup between these two sides of years past. It might be a good thing.
“It didn’t work out last year as far as how well we played them,” Dave Roberts said. They took eight of 13 games from Arizona a year ago. Then the Diamondbacks swept them out of the postseason.
Starting pitching still the biggest question
Flaherty’s presence is more necessity than luxury at this point. They needed it Monday.
“That’s a little preview of what’s to come,” Roberts said.
As it stands, he’d likely start the first game of the postseason for a Dodgers club that finds itself scrambling for starting pitching heading into the final month of the season. Again. The Dodgers rolled out a compromised Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 last season. A rookie Bobby Miller in Game 2. Lance Lynn, who approached all-time marks for home runs surrendered in a single season, authored a cacophony of slug in this very same ballpark in Game 3 a year ago.
And yet, this situation might not look all that much better right now.
“Honestly, the current state of our roster? Probably not,” Roberts said Monday morning.
Behind Flaherty, the options each carry some unknown. Gavin Stone, like Miller a year ago, has impressed as a rookie but would be making his postseason debut while encroaching on unprecedented territory as far as workload. Miller has hardly had the season he did a year ago (a 7.25 ERA in 10 starts), and while he has performed better in his last two starts, he’s been dealing with lingering soreness in his left knee. Then there’s Walker Buehler, who has stumbled often in his return from a second Tommy John surgery, but came away encouraged from his last start with the most extensive postseason track record of any of the options.
There isn’t a part of this talent-laden roster that could change more in the final weeks of the season. There isn’t a part of this group that could more single-handedly swing the Dodgers’ fortunes.
That relies heavily on the state of Tyler Glasnow’s elbow. Glasnow was supposed to be back by now, for this series. Sitting in the visiting dugout this weekend, he said multiple times, “sucks.” After all, this is why Glasnow is here. This is why he got paid.
“It’s always kind of about winning, but that number one priority is just the World Series,” Glasnow said. “That’s like all I think about now.”
It took until Friday for Glasnow to start a throwing progression without discomfort. He was out to 120 feet by Monday. But for as much as Glasnow said he’s “confident” he will be back not just for the postseason, but for potentially a couple of regular-season starts beforehand, that’s far from a certainty.
“Once he gets off the mound,” Roberts said, “then it can be a little more tangible for me.”
Yoshinobu Yamamoto could be closer to a return. He will throw three innings Tuesday in Oklahoma City. If all goes well, he could rejoin the rotation to at least have a few starts to recapture the dominant form he showed when he last was on a big-league mound in June.
The Dodgers might need him in the short-term, anyway. While Kershaw’s bothersome left toe is hardly a new issue — Roberts said he’s managed and pitched through it for “years” — it’s gotten to a breaking point. Kershaw said he couldn’t push off the mound when he left his start Friday and didn’t want to go further into the history of the issue after going on the injured list. But he’ll require scans and, Roberts said, potentially a walking boot. It doesn’t completely shut the door on Kershaw’s season; he’s continued to play catch in recent days. But the calendar isn’t kind to injuries this time of year.
“I don’t know how it’s going to look once we get to October,” Roberts said, “but we still have a lot of baseball to get there.”
Any September surprises?
There was little intrigue as to what would look different about the Dodgers roster as the calendar flipped to September 1 and rosters expanded. Andy Pages was forecasted as the additional position player from the moment he was sent down amid last month’s roster crunch. Justin Wrobleski’s stay with the big-league club was going to be brief even before he got blasted for 10 runs (tied for the most allowed by a Dodgers pitcher since Chan Ho Park in 1999), with Brusdar Graterol’s return to the bullpen possible as soon as Friday.
That doesn’t mean things are necessarily set beyond just getting healthy in the rotation.
Just seven men in the pitch-tracking era (since 2008) have thrown a pitch at 104 mph or harder; even in an era of unprecedented velocity, that is a speed limit not exceeded often. Edgardo Henriquez has breached that territory in the minor leagues this summer, adding intrigue to what has been a compelling journey. After missing all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery, the right-hander has pitched at four different levels this season and struck out 83 batters in 49 innings (and a 2.57 ERA) with his electric arsenal.
Since arriving in Triple A last month, he has allowed just five of the 38 batters he’s faced to reach safely. His four-seam fastball has averaged 99.7 mph.
He has to be added to the 40-man roster this winter or be left vulnerable to the Rule 5 draft. Or, the Dodgers could accelerate the process and introduce him into their bullpen mix with the postseason looming.
It’s not likely, but possible.
Dalton Rushing had played all of four games in his professional career in left field (all within the last month) before the Dodgers moved him up to Triple A last month along with Henriquez and Alex Freeland. It was no coincidence why the Dodgers put him there for all but four games through his first month in Oklahoma City; they want to keep their options open with their former top pick, and adding versatility beyond just catcher was the easiest way to make that possible.
Rushing’s bat has made the gamble worthwhile: Through his first 98 plate appearances with Oklahoma City, he’s hit .308/.439/.551 with nine extra-base hits. It’s quality thump from the left side. With the Dodgers’ decision to cut Jason Heyward last month, they could use another left-handed hitting bench bat in the mix.
Again, not likely, but possible. Both Henriquez and Rushing could be postseason eligible.
(Photo of Dave Roberts: Chris Coduto / Getty Images)
