So much of the first season of the 12-team College Football Playoff has been spent adjusting the definition of success and reassessing what, exactly, qualifies as a “big game.”
For some schools and their coaches, just getting into the field made their year. For others, simply being there is not good enough. Not even close.
Well, now the Playoff is here, and we’re still sorting it out. Maybe it will help to think of the range of expectations like March Madness, although obviously there is a big difference between a 68-team field and 12 teams.
Let’s apply the pressure meter to each Playoff-bound coach on a scale from 1 (Just happy to be here) to 5 (Do not under any circumstances mess this up).
Where to start? The national championship-or-bust tone around Day and the Buckeyes coming into the season left everyone overwrought, but losing to Michigan again has complicated matters significantly.
A first-round loss to Tennessee would never have been acceptable for Ohio State, which has not won a national title since 2014. Now, post-Michigan, CFP success seems more urgent for Day. He went 2-1 in top-five matchups this season, including a one-point loss at Oregon, but most Ohio State fans still look at the regular season as a failure. So what happens if you add in a postseason flameout? Buckeyes fan fiction suggests Day would be run out of Columbus.
The financial realities of what it would cost to fire Day, combined with the potential roster volatility a late-December coaching change could bring, makes it a long shot the people in charge at Ohio State would tear it all down.
But nothing short of a national championship will turn fan sentiment fully in Day’s favor. In fact, some Buckeyes fans would still remain skeptical because of the four-game losing streak against Michigan.
Bottom line: No team has faced more pressure this season, and no coach in the CFP needs at least one victory more than Day.
Pressure meter: 5, duh
A victory over 8.5-point underdog SMU (per BetMGM) would send the Nittany Lions to the Fiesta Bowl to face third-seeded Boise State, where they likely would be favored again. It’s a classic no-win situation for Franklin: He could lead Penn State to the semifinals and still not shed his can’t-win-the-big-one label. The loss to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game dropped Penn State’s record under Franklin against AP top-10 teams to 3-19.
If the Nittany Lions get upset in the first two rounds, they still will be labeled underachievers by some. A semifinal run should be celebrated, but to truly quiet the critics, Penn State would need to reach the championship game.
Pressure meter: 4
Freeman and the Fighting Irish completed the mission when it came to the regular season, despite a startling detour in the form of a Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois. Their assignment: Host a Playoff game. The result: The very first one will be held with Touchdown Jesus overlooking the action on Friday, Dec. 20.
So Freeman has delivered, and now comes the next level of expectation: Can Brian Kelly’s replacement do what Kelly could not and win one of these big postseason games?
Ah, but here’s the catch: Instead of one of those traditional powers the Irish usually bump their heads against in the postseason, their opponent in the first round is Indiana, which sets up a weird dynamic. Freeman won’t get much credit for Notre Dame’s first College Football Playoff victory, and losing would feed into the narrative he doesn’t take care of business against the teams Notre Dame should beat. The Irish are 7.5-point favorites.
Year 3 already counts as continued progress for the Irish under Freeman, but a first-round stumble will feel like a missed opportunity, especially with a seemingly vulnerable Georgia team waiting in the quarterfinals.
Pressure meter: 3.5
GO DEEPER
Notre Dame and Indiana are finally getting to know each other in an unlikely place
4. Dabo Swinney, Clemson
Little ol’ Clemson is back. The Tigers aren’t what they used to be, but they’re on the big stage again, and frankly, Swinney seems to fit the underdog role much better than the favorite.
It took a couple of small miracles for Clemson to get here, so you’d think it’s all extra from here. Fact is, Clemson still has a championship pedigree, and getting bounced in the first round at Texas would further cement Swinney’s program as a fading superpower.
Pressure meter: 3.5
5. Steve Sarkisian, Texas
The Longhorns’ first season in the SEC has to be considered a success, despite taking their second loss to Georgia on Saturday. Sarkisian is still riding the wave of being the coach that brought Texas back.
A first-round game against Clemson gives Sark’s Longhorns a chance to check the victory-over-a-name-brand box. The ensuing quarterfinal against Arizona State provides a promising path to the semifinals.
Of course, Texas fans crave their first national title since 2005. If it doesn’t work out this year, well, Arch Manning will take the reins next season. Texas doesn’t appear to be going anywhere, but the Longhorns lost in the CFP semifinals last year and dropped two games to Georgia as the favorite this season. If Sark can’t convert a good draw (including a semifinal that would be played in the Cotton Bowl) into at least a title game appearance, he’ll be next up on the can’t-win-the-big-one board.
Pressure meter: 3
6. Dan Lanning, Oregon
Lanning is still in something of a honeymoon phase in Year 3 in Eugene. The Ducks have been improving on the field and cleaning up in recruiting. There is still some “Will Dan do something weird to screw up the game?” hesitation among Oregon fans, and a one-and-done CFP trip will certainly stoke those doubts — even if that one is against Tennessee or Ohio State at the Rose Bowl. The arrow feels pointed up with Oregon right now, so washing out as the top seed might not feel as devastating as it would for other blue bloods. It will, however, continue to allow opposing fans to call into question Oregon’s elite-program status. Plus, when you have a team this good, you shouldn’t assume it’s your new normal.
Pressure meter: 3
GO DEEPER
Who will win the College Football Playoff? Bruce Feldman fills out his bracket
7. Josh Heupel, Tennessee
Volunteers fans are feeling a bit salty about not hosting a first-round game, and now their team is being sent to Columbus to face one of the two or three most talented rosters in the country.
Tennessee coaches never get a pass, but Heupel — like Sarkisian at Texas — is still living the sweet life that comes with pulling a traditional powerhouse out of a ditch.
Beat Ohio State on the road, and this season is an unquestionable success for the Vols no matter what happens next. Lose, and Heupel will probably get roasted for a few days on the message boards, though Vols fans will probably just blame the officiating.
Pressure meter: 2.5
8. Rhett Lashlee, SMU
SMU’s inclusion completes a four-decade climb back to playing college football at the highest level. Considering how stressful it was at the end, the Mustangs should be heading into the Playoff feeling loose, with nothing to lose. Lashlee certainly doesn’t want to hear that. The pressure comes from recognizing how fleeting this can all be and knowing getting back to this position is far from a given.
Pressure meter: 2
9. Kirby Smart, Georgia
The Bulldogs were the preseason No. 1, and no one associated with Georgia football these days is here for just making the Playoff. Smart’s program is in it to win it every year. With two national titles to his credit, Smart is a made man. Two years removed from their last championship, Smart and Georgia are chasing the Alabama standard. Anything less than title No. 3, even with injury issues at quarterback, will feel less than satisfying to Bulldogs fans. Not stacking up to Saban is nothing to be ashamed of, and a new Playoff format will make it more difficult for anybody to replicate his six-title run with the Tide. With that as the backdrop, reaching the title game seems like a minimum requirement for Smart.
Pressure meter: 2
10. Spencer Danielson, Boise State
The BCS-buster Broncos finally get their shot to make a national title run, and they’ll do it with a first-round bye and a relatively short trip to the Fiesta Bowl for a quarterfinal against SMU or Penn State. Will Boise State fans be disappointed if the ride ends with just one game? Sure. But really, Ashton Jeanty’s final college season could not have worked out much better, and it’s all gravy from here for the 36-year-old Danielson.
Pressure meter: 1.5
GO DEEPER
Ranking all 36 national championship matchup scenarios from most likely to Clemson vs. SMU
11. Curt Cignetti, Indiana
Don’t you dare suggest to Cignetti that the Hoosiers should just be happy to be here. That said, the Hoosiers should be thrilled to be here. And their fans don’t even have to travel far to see them play at Notre Dame in the first round. Cignetti has delivered beyond IU’s wildest dreams. Best. Season. Ever.
Pressure meter: 1
12. Kenny Dillingham, Arizona State
The Sun Devils were on absolutely nobody’s Playoff radar a month ago, and now they have a first-round bye as the Big 12 champions. With a 34-year-old second-year coach leading a massive turnaround from 3-9 last year, Tempe might be the happiest place in college football right now. No quarterfinal result is likely to change that.
Pressure: 0.5
(Top illustration: Dan Goldfarb for The Athletic; Photos: Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswire, Justin Casterline, Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
