With the Champions League Round of 16 wrapped up, the outright winner odds have reshuffled heading into April’s quarter-finals. Barcelona and PSG now lead the pack as co-favourites, while Real Madrid and Bayern Munich remain strong contenders.
We’ve broken down the updated bracket, analyzing each team’s form, odds, and whether there are any anomalies to consider when assessing the bookmakers’ evaluations. Here’s where all eight quarter-finalists stand in the race for European glory…
The four favourites
Barcelona (10/3) powered past Benfica with a 3-1 second-leg win, driven by Raphinha’s brace and a record-breaking display from 17-year-old Lamine Yamal, who became the youngest player to score and assist in a single UCL game. Hansi Flick’s troops must now prepare for a clash with last season’s tournament runners-up: Borussia Dortmund. Given their firepower and form, Barça are expected to advance.
Paris Saint-Germain (10/3) sent shockwaves through Europe with a penalty shootout win over Premier League leaders Liverpool at Anfield. The Ligue 1 giants showed resilience and composure in a high-pressure knockout tie, which they’ll have to replicate against Aston Villa in the quarter-finals. But having already eliminated Arne Slot’s juggernauts on their home turf, PSG will like their chances of reaching the semis.
Real Madrid (4/1) proved once again why they are specialists in European ventures, grinding out a controversial last-minute penalty win over Atlético Madrid. A goal within 30 seconds of kick-off from Conor Gallagher put Los Blancos on the brink of elimination, but Carlo Ancelotti’s side found a way – just as they often do. Up next is Arsenal, a team known for their strong set-piece tactics. Madrid’s experience, defensive solidity and relentlessness under pressure could make the difference.
Bayern Munich (5/1) crushed Bayer Leverkusen 5-0 on aggregate, with Harry Kane scoring three of their five goals. Vincent Kompany’s team faces a blockbuster quarter-final matchup against Inter Milan – a rematch of the 2010 final, where the Italians won 2-0. With both sides in strong form, this could be the tightest matchup of the round.
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Underdogs and dark horses
Arsenal (7/1) dismantled PSV Eindhoven 9-3 on aggregate, displaying their attacking prowess. However, facing Real Madrid in the quarter-finals is a different challenge altogether. Mikel Arteta’s squad will face a quicker team known for holding possession, so the Gunners must be more tactically disciplined if they hope to break down Los Blancos’ experienced defence.
Inter Milan (10/1) took care of business against Feyenoord, securing a 2-0 second-leg victory with Marcus Thuram scoring in both legs. The Italian giants still have a treble in their sights, but Bayern Munich present a formidable obstacle. Can Simone Inzaghi’s men channel the spirit of 2010 and pull off an upset?
Aston Villa (28/1) continue their dream season in Europe, easing past Club Brugge with a 6-1 aggregate win. However, the real test awaits against PSG. Unai Emery’s side has already surprised many fans with their ability to make it this far, but they’ll need to be near-perfect to stand a chance against the Parisian’s lethal counterattack.
Borussia Dortmund (40/1) narrowly edged Lille in a hard-fought 3-2 aggregate win, but their challenge intensifies in the quarter-final against Barcelona – a team in red-hot form. With the odds stacked against them, Niko Kovač will need his team to deliver a defensive masterclass to keep their tournament hopes alive.
Do the odds match the storylines?
When assessing the odds ahead of the quarter-finals, a few anomalies emerge between the bookmakers’ evaluations and the narratives surrounding some of the eight teams.
For example, despite Inter Milan’s strong showing in the competition thus far, bookmakers have positioned Inzaghi’s side as underdogs. This assessment seems conservative, considering Lautaro Martínez’s goal-scoring proficiency, Yann Sommer’s shot-stopping abilities, and the team’s skill in building attack from the backline. Sure, the Nerazzurri’s upcoming clash against the Germans will be challenging, but Inter’s resilience suggest they could outperform these expectations.
Liverpool were favoured to lift the trophy in January, but after their round of 16 exit, there’s been a restructure in the markets. Deservedly, PSG shot up the rankings after knocking out the Reds, but Madrid’s experience and knack for navigating high-pressure situations shouldn’t be underestimated. Even before beating Manchester City in the playoffs, Los Blancos were priced at 13/2 to win the competition, demonstrating the faith bookmakers have in Los Blancos. But after grinding out a win against Atleti, punters would be wise to consider Madrid level with Barca and PSG. Regardless of the odds, Ancelotti’s side should always be among the favourites – a point bolstered by their 15 Champions League trophies.
While it may be too early to say, with Madrid on one side of the bracket and Barca on the other, the potential for an El Clásico final is very much alive, offering a mouthwatering prospect for die-hard fans and bettors alike.
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