DALLAS — Familiarity played a strong role in Clay Holmes and the New York Mets agreeing to a three-year contract worth $38 million, people briefed on the discussions said. For both sides of the deal, relationships were pivotal regarding the belief in the former Yankees closer’s ability to be used as a starter.
Two members of the Mets’ coaching staff have ties to Holmes. Mets manager Carlos Mendoza previously worked as the Yankees’ bench coach. Also, the Mets recently hired Desi Druschel from the Yankees as assistant pitching coach.
As Holmes attempts to transition from the bullpen to the rotation, the familiar faces on the Mets’ coaching staff should help his chances.
By how much? Across the league, some scouts and executives wonder just how good a starter Holmes can be. They have concerns over whether Holmes’ repertoire includes enough variety to follow in the footsteps of successful converted relievers like Kansas City Royals right-hander Seth Lugo and others. Holmes, 31, primarily threw a sinker, slider and sweeper last season, increasing the usage of the sweeper compared to prior seasons.
However, others point to some new and potentially intriguing wrinkles for Holmes after the veteran right-hander toyed with a couple of ideas late last season.
Toward the end of 2024 and during the Yankees’ playoff run, Holmes utilized a four-seam fastball against left-handed batters. He also experimented with a changeup, but did not unleash the pitch in games.
Clay Holmes will need to expand his repertoire to navigate outings as a starter, some scouts say. (Adam Hunger / Getty Images)
With the Mets, Holmes is expected to try to continue to use the four-seam fastball or some combination between a four-seamer and cutter along with the changeup, people briefed on the plan said.
Holmes began his professional career with the Pittsburgh Pirates as a starter. But he has not started a game since 2018. When he worked as a starter, Holmes threw a four-seam fastball way more often, but it wasn’t a good pitch back then. And on the rare occasions when Holmes had tried the four-seamer as a reliever over the past few years, data suggested it was one of baseball’s worst heaters. Late last season, though, the pitch started to perform better.
The four-seam fastballs Holmes threw against the Royals and Los Angeles Dodgers left-handed batter Max Muncy, according to Baseball Savant, featured the best ride of his career (by 1.5 inches). The pitch’s Stuff+, a metric from The Athletic’s Eno Sarris, also jumped from being in the bottom five in the big leagues to the 20th percentile. That marked improvement shows some upside for the pitch, which he threw as hard as 97 mph in the playoffs.
With the addition of Druschel under Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, Holmes could hit the ground running with that pitch, and others. Previously, Druschel had worked with Holmes on the slider. Druschel has a great reputation in the industry as someone who excels at helping pitchers with different grips and pitch design.
Scouts say a four-seam fastball and a changeup should help. To navigate a lineup more than once, he would benefit from a more diverse arsenal.
“It’s an aggressive move being mainly a two-pitch guy who struggles with repeating his delivery consistently,” an American League scout said. “He’s a big guy (6-foot-5, 245) with deception from a high release point, but the sinker was starting to be less effective as time went on. Does he also lose some velocity along with that in a starter role?
“He’s more of a set-up-down-the-middle type of guy who can let it eat more than a location guy with a repeatable delivery who can manipulate the baseball. I don’t know if he has the feel or arm slot to develop a splitter or changeup for a viable third pitch.”
Holmes’ most-used pitch as an All-Star reliever has long been his sinker. He threw it a ton against both right-handed and left-handed batters. But his sinker regressed last year, and, in particular, left-handed batters hit .346 against it. And generally, that’s in part because sinkers are horizontal pitches with less margin for error when right-handed pitchers are trying to execute against left-handed batters. Typically, compared to other pitches, sinkers have larger platoon splits. Conversely, a four-seam fastball and/or changeup could help Holmes avoid barrels against lefties.
“Against left-handed batters is a real what-if,” an NL scout said. “Look for a changeup of some kind to be introduced in spring training. Can the Mets’ infield defense handle all of the groundballs? That’s his superpower, weak contact on the ground.”
Overall, many in the industry view the experiment as a worthwhile endeavor, especially given the soaring prices for free-agent starting pitchers. As one longtime National League scout put it, it’s a “viable margin play,” something Mets president of baseball operation David Stearns tends to extract value from. A handful of other teams saw things similarly and were interested in Holmes as a starter, league sources said.
“Should the starting go sideways, reach an innings-limit caution, he moves back to the bullpen, creates a 1.2 to 1.5 fWAR, which he has done for the last three years,” the same NL scout said. “As a multiple-inning out-getter, the cost is well within a ‘win’ for the club.”
The Mets would prefer to get even more production out of Holmes. He has thrown at least 60 innings in each of the past four seasons has never logged more than 70, his total in 2021. Mets officials are bullish on their ability to get more than 100 innings out of Holmes, especially after successfully guiding Luis Severino to 182 innings after injuries limited him to just 209 1/3 innings the previous four seasons,
Questions over durability and how a pitcher’s stuff translates from the bullpen almost always accompany a reliever to the rotation. The Mets, however, see enough in Holmes and believe enough in their staff to give it a shot.
“They have staffers who know him well and know what he has been working on,” an executive said. “He checks some of the boxes. Let’s see if it works.”
(Photo of Clay Holmes: Mike Stobe / Getty Images)
