BYU vs. Duquesne expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament matchup



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The No. 6-seeded BYU Cougars take on the East Region’s No. 11 seed, the Duquesne Dukes, Thursday at 12:40 p.m. ET in Omaha, Nebraska. The game will be broadcast on TruTV.

BYU Cougars (23-10, 10-8 Big 12)

No team in the field relies on 3-pointers more than BYU. The Cougars shoot 34.8 percent from deep — right at the national average — but 50.7 percent of their total field-goal attempts come from beyond the arc. All the 3s also open up easy shots inside the arc, where BYU connects on 58 percent of its 2s. The Cougars rank in the top 20 in adjusted efficiency on KenPom, but sometimes fall behind without good shooting. Their best wins include beating Iowa State and Texas at home and at Kansas in late February.

BYU’s defense, however, only forces turnovers on about 16 percent of opponents’ possessions, which is one of the worst rates in the country, and isn’t great at protecting the rim. It’s not a bad defense, but it rarely alters the game. The Cougars will hustle, but that’s about it. The Cougars also don’t get many free throws because they shoot so many threes.

BYU spreads out opponents with its 5-out approach. Whether it’s Dallin Hall running the show or Aly Khalifa spotting shooters from the top of the key, BYU’s size helps it spot open shooters over the defense. And when opponents try to limit 3s, BYU will drive to the basket. The Cougars also use 6-foot-6 Fousseyni Traore down low when Khalifa is on the bench, offering more space for those shooters. BYU could make a formidable foe this week. However, a deep run is only possible if the shots are falling. —Mike Miller, The Field of 68

Duquesne Dukes (24-11, 10-8 A-10)

You can’t spell Duquesne without a ‘D,’ which is entirely appropriate. Unshakeable when guarding the basketball, the Dukes locked down the opposition with steady ferocity. Exhibiting shifty hands, they forced a turnover on more than 19 percent of opponent possessions. Their physical on-ball onslaught will frustrate any team with subpar rock handlers.

At No. 284 nationally in average height, per KenPom, Duquesne is often outmatched against strong interior teams. Unsurprisingly, the Dukes don’t rate very highly in terms of offensive and defensive rebounding. Keith Dambrot’s group also lacks pizzazz offensively. Over the regular season’s final month, they tallied a mediocre 1.07 points per possession, No. 172 nationally during the stretch. Whether scoring inside or out, they’re average, at best.

Entering the NCAA Tournament sporting one of the longest active win streaks (eight games) on the collegiate circuit, the Dukes have reached their zenith at the most opportune time. Given their willingness to defend, generally methodical pace and overall experience, they’re somewhat interesting. However, expectations should be tempered. Duquesne recorded zero victories against the tournament at-large field. — Brad Evans, The Gaming Juice


What: East Region, First Round

Tipoff time: 12:40 p.m. ET Thursday

TV: TruTV

Location: Omaha, Neb.

BYU vs. Duquesne odds

Odds are from BetMGM and update live. Find the best ticket deals on StubHub to see your favorite team.

Expert picks

Model projection: BYU by 5.5, total 142.1

See Austin Mock’s best futures bets

Players to watch

BYU

  • Jaxson Robinson, senior guard, Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year

Duquesne

  • Jimmy Clark III, senior guard, second-team All-Atlantic 10, All-Atlantic 10 defensive team
  • Dae Dae Grant, graduate guard, second-team All-Atlantic 10

Library of Madness

(Top photo: Jay Biggerstaff / Getty Images, Rich Graessle / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)





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