Inside: The biggest values of this draft, plus Bruce Arians’ thoughts on QB success and Mel Kiper Jr.’s weekend performance.
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Biggest steals among top 50 picks
A steal is the nice way to classify a prospect who tumbled down draft boards.
A year ago, the 2024 consensus big board suggested players like Jared Verse (No. 10 on the big board, drafted 19th) and Cooper DeJean (No. 24, drafted 40th) were steals for the Rams and Eagles, respectively. Their rookie seasons indicated that might be true.
This year’s draft will be remembered for the fall of, and lesson taught to, Shedeur Sanders, but plenty of other top-50 talent also went later than expected.
Since I’m being positive here, let’s calculate the added value their new teams get to enjoy. Let’s find the difference between each prospect’s ranking on The Athletic’s consensus big board and actual draft position:
Why did those top seven players fall? Who are they? Quickly:
Jets: CB Azareye’h Thomas, Florida State (+31).
A surprising pick considering the talent already in their secondary, but the 20-year-old Thomas fits HC Aaron Glenn’s brand: “Tough, physical, violent, aggressive, resilient.” A strong press coverage corner, Thomas fell due to questions about his long speed and ball skills. The Jets happily added a second-round talent and potential long-term starting corner at pick 73. Well done.
Bills: Edge Landon Jackson, Arkansas (+31).
Buffalo’s offseason mission was to improve their defense. Sure, spending their first five picks on that side of the ball was a tad shocking, but then again, Bills Mafia will love this 6-foot-6, 264-pounder. Jackson plans to make an immediate impact: “Love the way they have me schemed up. They got me playing true D-end, 5-technique all the way to wide-9.” A potential first-rounder, Jackson offers a strong option behind starters Greg Rousseau and Joey Bosa.
Cardinals: CB Will Johnson, Michigan (+33). Initially projected as a top-five pick in Dane Brugler’s first 2025 mock draft, the 6-foot-2, 202-pound Johnson looks like a prototypical corner — an anonymous coach told Bruce Feldman that Johnson is built like Patrick Surtain II. But teams were concerned with his speed, effort and inconsistent 2024, which ended early due to injuries. He fell to Arizona, where he seems likely to start in Week 1. Here’s a glimpse of what quarterbacks in the pass-happy NFC West can expect:
Ravens: Edge Mike Green, Marshall (+45).
Were the off-field concerns a warning sign for the Ravens? On the field, the team immediately improved their middling pass-rush group with a top-10 talent. It was controversial, but at No. 59, Baltimore felt willing to draft someone they’d considered in the first round. GM Eric DeCosta said that the Ravens did a “thorough” investigation of the sexual assault allegations, which have been denied by Green.
Falcons: S Xavier Watts, Notre Dame (+46).
The draft’s second-best top-50 value was snatched when Atlanta GM Terry Fontenot traded pick 101 and a 2026 fifth-rounder to move up five spots for Watts, a two-time consensus All-American. Ranking No. 50 on the board, Watts has athleticism, but 4.58 speed concerns. The Falcons had considered Watts a Round 2 prospect and expect him to fit nicely in their zone-heavy scheme next to Jessie Bates III. Beat reporter Josh Kendall has that and more in his draft takeaways.
Browns: QB Shedeur Sanders, Colorado (+112).
There are a few theories why Deion Sanders’ son fell as far as he did. I have my own ideas, mostly tied to his limited ceiling, but I never expected such a drastic drop. Here’s what others have said:
Our Dianna Russini heard this from an NFL executive: “I believe Shedeur approached these visits with teams as a recruiting trip versus a job interview.” Yes, the 23-year-old should have hired an agent to help handle the process.
Sanders, guided by his father, chose not to throw at the East-West Shrine Bowl, nor at the scouting combine. “He didn’t do himself any favors (with that approach),” noted Jeff Howe.
On Monday’s edition of “The Herd,” Colin Cowherd shared that an executive told him, “If (Shedeur) doesn’t go in the first six to eight picks at the top of the second round, then people view him as a backup.” Colin then added, “Nobody wants a celebrity backup quarterback.”
Our college football guru Bruce Feldman heard this from an NFL assistant: “(Shedeur’s) got a skill set, but no dominant trait. He’s a backup at this point, and those guys have to be wired for humble support of the starter.”
Regarding Shedeur, who’s still the talk of the draft, no reaction was bigger than that of Mel Kiper Jr. Let’s talk about that.
Just Good TV? Mel Kiper delivered
There’s a three-minute clip from Saturday’s draft coverage of Mel Kiper Jr. arguing with ESPN colleagues Rece Davis and Louis Riddick about why Sanders fell. Mel’s frustration eventually led him to cry out:
“The NFL has been CLUELESS for 50 years when it comes to evaluating quarterbacks!”
“Clueless” is not the right word, as the first QB drafted becomes the best of his class 40 percent of the time, a pretty impressive hit rate. But Kiper’s rant made for an entertaining show, and it actually ties into the history of the NFL Draft as a television product.
Back in 1980, when former Commissioner Pete Rozelle agreed to broadcast the draft, he was skeptical it could provide sufficient entertainment. It went better than expected.
Fourteen years after that debut, a then-34-year-old Kiper lambasted Colts GM Bill Tobin for passing on a quarterback in a feud that elevated draft coverage into must-see TV.
“To pass up a Trent Dilfer when all you have is Jim Harbaugh, give me a break. That’s why the Colts are picking second every year.”
Tobin didn’t appreciate the slight, responding with the iconic “Who in the hell is Mel Kiper?” In that same interview, Tobin said his neighbor, a postal worker, had more credentials than Kiper. Ouch.
Fast forward 31 years, and Kiper remains by far the longest-tenured draft analyst, having worked in the role at ESPN since 1984. He’s had impressive hits — he was the rare analyst to rank Josh Allen as the top player in 2018 — and his final 2025 mock was one of the most correct (10 first-round hits).
But like almost everyone else, he sure was wrong about what the NFL thought of Sanders, who was Kiper’s QB1 and No. 5 overall prospect. Kiper’s outbursts on the ESPN broadcast prompted The Athletic’s sports media experts to ask if the Sanders fall finally broke the long-time analyst. Can’t blame them for that question, after Kiper responded to the Browns picking Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel over Sanders by exclaiming, “Disgusting!”
Maybe a tad too far? It’s an entertainment business, and Kiper gave ESPN exactly what it wants — opinions that make headlines. Sanders’ fall was the 1A story of the 2025 draft, but Kiper’s reactions competed for 1B.
Next: Bruce Arians shared one reason why Kiper might be right after all.
Coach Speaks: Bruce Arians on QB success
My favorite new reporting vertical at The Athletic is Peak. From journaling like Michael Phelps to unpacking the leadership of Drew Brees, these articles help me think about “leadership, personal development and success through the lens of sports.”
Today’s story is about the biggest reason young quarterbacks succeed or fail. Bruce Arians, Super Bowl champion and former coach of the Cardinals and Buccaneers, explains to our Jayson Jenks when he knew Andrew Luck had what it took to succeed:
Arians asked Luck to diagram a play from earlier in the day. While Luck did exactly that, Arians tested him. “That’s not what I said.” Luck didn’t skip a beat, firing back with “That’s exactly what you said.” His confidence aced the test.
I knew then that when tough times came — and they always do for young quarterbacks — he could handle it. It wouldn’t crumble him. And after all my years in the NFL, I think that’s the No. 1 indicator of whether players in general and quarterbacks in particular will succeed or fail: how they handle failure. — Bruce Arians on Andrew Luck.
The full story offers a lesson on handling failure, which I need after suggesting a Bengals-49ers Super Bowl in 2024.
Does Shedeur have confidence? Plenty. Will he apply it to succeed at the next level? Share your thoughts here.
Yesterday’s most-clicked: Dane Brugler’s “yes-we-know-it’s-too-early” 2026 mock
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(Photo: Chris McGrath, Christian Petersen / Getty Images)