Do you want to be an actor? Listening to Screen Actors Guild Awards host Kristen Bell singing that question to the tune of “Do You Want to Build a Snowman,” it seemed like the only reasonable response was a hearty “hell yes,” even with all the talk of failure and embarrassment and the possibility that Colin Farrell might give you COVID if you win an award.
You know what would be more alarming than catching a contagious disease from a charming Irishman? “Conclave” winning best picture at the Academy Awards. And yet it’s a very real possibility after the crowd-pleasing papal potboiler won the SAG Awards’ ensemble prize Sunday night.
Oscar voting is closed, with the ceremony being just seven days away. So nothing that tonight’s movie winners said from the stage will have any impact on the 97th Oscars, nor will the playing of Diane Warren’s nominated power ballad “The Journey” during the in memoriam segment.
But the SAG Awards are, for the most part, a reliable precursor to the Academy Awards. How trustworthy will they be this year? Let’s take a look.
CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE
Winner: “Conclave”
The past: The winner of this award went on to take the best picture Oscar 15 of 29 years, making it easily the SAG Awards’ least trustworthy Oscar precursor. (The ensemble prize wasn’t awarded in 1994, the SAG Awards’ first year.) Perhaps worth noting: The past three winners — “CODA,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and “Oppenheimer” — have also won the Oscar.
Will history repeat itself? After taking this ensemble honor and the best picture prize last weekend at the British Academy Film Awards, “Conclave” is very much in the running for the best picture Oscar. It has long been held up as the movie that could prevail with the Oscars’ preferential ballot, a ranked choice vote that rewards movies that are well-liked — or at least, not disliked.
Still, it’s worth pointing out that “Anora” won the top prizes this year from the producers, directors and writers guilds. Only one film has won those three honors and lost best picture — “Brokeback Mountain.”
“Anora” remains the favorite.
FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Winner: Demi Moore, “The Substance”
The past: SAG and the academy have matched 21 of 30 years. Notable recent exceptions: Frances McDormand winning her third Oscar for “Nomadland” after Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) won SAG, Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”) denying 2019 SAG winner Glenn Close (“The Wife”) her first Oscar and, just last year, Emma Stone (“Poor Things”) winning her second Oscar over SAG winner Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”).
Will history repeat itself? Did you see that standing ovation? Moore began her comeback narrative at the Golden Globes when she gave a speech — one that she had memorized — that was both gracious and inspiring. She wrapped it up, beaming, “I do belong.” But then Madison took the honors at the British Film Academy Awards and, yesterday, the Spirit Awards. And with “Anora” winning top prizes at the directors and producers guild awards, it was easy to believe that the momentum in this race had shifted to the film’s terrific lead. It’s still a toss-up. But Moore is genuinely loved in the industry. People are rooting for her. All season long, it’s been easy to see why.
MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Winner: Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
The past: This category has been the most reliable indicator of Oscar victory, with SAG and the academy matching 24 of 30 times. There are exceptions, though, such as when Anthony Hopkins won the Oscar for “The Father,” prevailing over SAG winner Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”).
Will history repeat itself: Chalamet won’t turn 30 until the end of the year. If he won the Oscar for “A Complete Unknown,” he’d be the youngest to take the lead actor trophy. Who currently holds that distinction? None other than Adrien Brody, nominated for “The Brutalist,” who won for “The Pianist” in 2003, 22 days before his 30th birthday.
One thing is certain: Chalamet now holds the record as being the youngest to win SAG’s lead actor prize, taking that badge from Nicolas Cage, who was 32 when he prevailed for “Leaving Las Vegas” in 1996.
The SAG Awards, voted on by a broad membership of 125,000 members, skew more populist than the Oscars, so I think Brody remains the favorite. But now it’s competitive. Brody’s film, “The Brutalist,” earned 10 nominations, while “A Complete Unknown” scored eight. Both have their camps. But as much as the Oscars love rewarding a good biopic turn, Brody delivers a serious, deeply emotional performance in a movie that feels weighty. And he’s old(er).
FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Winner: Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
The past: The SAG award winner has gone on to take the Oscar 22 of 29 times, including last year, when Da’Vine Joy Randolph won for “The Holdovers,” one of countless prizes she won that season. (Kate Winslet took this category in 2009 for “The Reader” but was nominated for — and won — the Oscar for lead actress for that performance.)
Will history repeat itself? Let me answer by asking another question: Is there an award that Saldaña has not won this season? She’s so good in “Emilia Pérez” that none of the movie’s controversies, including the offensive social media posts of her nominated co-star Karla Sofía Gascón, can keep her from winning. “Why should she be penalized for something she had nothing to do with?” one Oscar voter told me last week. Obviously, it was a rhetorical question as Saldaña’s triumphs have continued unabated. She’ll add an Oscar to her haul next week.
MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Winner: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
The past: The SAG winner has gone on to win the Oscar 21 times in 30 years, including the last 11, the longest streak of any category.
Will history repeat itself? This category has become a snooze since 2016, the year Idris Elba won for “Beasts of No Nation” after not being nominated at the Oscars. Mark Rylance ended up winning the Oscar for “Bridge of Spies,” beating sentimental choice Sylvester Stallone, nominated for the “Rocky” reboot “Creed.” We haven’t had a competitive race since then, with the likes of Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”), Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) and Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”) sweeping the season — just like Culkin this year.
