Four different teams have lifted the Stanley Cup in the last four seasons, and this year’s race appears to be wide open as well. NHL’s postseason always has some level of unpredictability, but the odds board shows an incredibly tight field ahead of the start of playoff action on Saturday. The defending champion Florida Panthers and the 2022 winners, the Colorado Avalanche, are co-favorites on BetMGM with +750 odds, but seven teams have odds shorter than +1000 (10-to-1) odds.
The Carolina Hurricanes are a tick behind the Avs and Panthers at +800. Carolina has made it out of the first round each of the past four seasons, but fell short of 100 points this season. Part of Carolina’s spot in the odds is due to the matchups. Carolina is the biggest favorite of the first round at -275 against the New Jersey Devils, who share the lowest point total of any playoff team with the Montreal Canadiens.
Meanwhile, the Panthers have to take on the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round and start without home-ice advantage. The Panthers are a slight favorite to advance from the intrastate series at -115 (as opposed to the Lightning at -105). If Florida gets by the Bolts, the Panthers could emerge as a more clear-cut favorite to lift the Cup. The same goes for Tampa Bay in the middle pack of the odds board at +1100. But the Lightning should shoot near the top if they get past the defending champs. Florida knocked out Tampa in five games in the first round last year.
An interesting wrinkle among the two co-favorites is that both teams start on the road in the first round. The Avs and Panthers both finished third in their divisions. Colorado is -160 to get by the Dallas Stars. Connor McDavid’s Edmonton Oilers are also a No. 3 seed favored in the first round with -120 odds against the Los Angeles Kings. McDavid has the shortest odds to win the Conn Smythe Trophy, but is still a relative longshot at +1300.
The Dallas Stars (+850), Vegas Golden Knights (+850), Edmonton Oilers (+950) and Washington Capitals (+950) are also in the mix. There are eight teams with odds of 10-to-1 or shorter to win the Stanley Cup, which makes the NHL drastically different from the NBA, which has only four teams in that range and only five teams with odds shorter than 25-to-1 ahead of the start of its playoffs, also on Saturday. Of course, the NBA is largely more predictable and driven by favored teams, but this NHL postseason does appear to be there for the taking for almost any of the 16 teams.
That said, it does look like a tough road ahead for the Canadiens, which enter the postseason as the longest shot to win it all at +8000 (80-to-1). Sorry, Habs fans, at least you’re back in the postseason for the first time since 2021.
2025 Stanley Cup winner odds
How about the Toronto Maple Leafs? Toronto won its division and had the second-most wins during the regular season (52, only topped by Winnipeg’s 56). The Leafs no longer have a playoff series drought, having won a series two years ago, the first in 19 years. However, they experienced heartbreak last year in an overtime loss in Game 7 at Boston. Toronto fans may be wondering how the team can torture them this postseason, but at least for the first round, the Leafs are solid favorites to advance against the Ottawa Senators at -190.
The skepticism remains in the odds, though. Even as a clear first-round favorite, Toronto is only fifth in the odds to advance out of the Eastern Conference at +575. Florida (+340), Carolina (+350), Tampa Bay (+400) and Washington (+450) are ahead of Toronto.
In the Western Conference, Colorado is the favorite at +380. Interestingly, the Jets are only fifth in the odds, despite finishing with the league’s best record (116 points). However, Dom Luszczyszyn’s projections give the Jets (then Leafs) the best chance at winning the Cup. Winnipeg is a clear favorite to get by St. Louis, the league’s hottest team, in the first round, but both potential second-round opponents (Colorado and Dallas) are well ahead of Winnipeg in BetMGM’s ratings.
Even with Winnipeg and Toronto having strong regular seasons, it doesn’t appear likely this will be the year Canada ends its 32-year Stanley Cup drought. BetMGM is giving Canadian teams +240 odds to lift the Cup, while an American winner is heavily expected at -300. Even with the Jets and Maple Leafs winning their divisions, it’s a numbers game. Eleven of the 16 playoff teams are from the U.S., including the top five favorites.
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