It was October 2023 when Ange Postecoglou joked about Tottenham Hotspur turning their stadium into a “nightclub”, whereas the cliche is that a home ground should be a fortress.
Then, Tottenham had won seven of their opening nine league games of 2023-24, were off the back of a 2-0 home victory over Fulham, and topped the Premier League table. Freed From Desire played over the PA system. Tottenham were dancing and Postecoglou had statistically the best-ever start by a permanent manager in the Premier League (23 points from nine games).
A record-breaking start is a high bar to set, but Tottenham have not had anything close to that sort of form since. Postecoglou has spent a season-and-a-half of press conferences defending his team, his principles and his dogmatism, and while nobody expects them to change style, the reality is Tottenham need to be more boring.
That starts with drawing more. Tottenham have only drawn nine of 59 league games under Postecoglou (27 wins and 23 defeats), the fewest of any team to play Premier League football in both 2023-24 and 2024-25. Draws are often viewed as points dropped, though in recent seasons, Tottenham have won enough but lost too many. It has cost them.
Last term, Tottenham finished fifth, two points behind Aston Villa in fourth (and in the last Champions League place). They won the same number of games, 20, however Villa had two more draws and Tottenham two more defeats.
It was a similar story in 2022-23 when Brighton & Hove Albion and Villa finished above them, with Tottenham finishing eighth and missing out on European football entirely. All three teams had 18 wins, Tottenham just lost more. In 2021-22, Tottenham (22) won more than Chelsea (21) but finished one place lower because they had only five draws and 11 defeats, while Chelsea drew 11 times and only lost six.
The high-floor, low-ceiling performances from Tottenham are encapsulated by their goal difference this season. At +11, it’s the fifth-highest in the league and they are second-top scorers (43) behind leaders Liverpool (48), yet are closer to the relegation zone than they are to eighth-place Bournemouth. All but one of their seven league wins have been by a margin of at least three goals, while all but one of their 11 defeats have been by a margin of one.
Being so all-or-nothing predates Postecoglou, but his style compounds it. Tottenham play in the same gear regardless of the opposition or scoreline. They restart games the quickest in the league, even when winning, and almost exclusively build up short. Just 4.6 per cent of their goal kicks have been launched (kicked 40+ yards), the lowest proportion in Europe’s top-five leagues. In open play, their goalkeepers only launch 13.3 per cent of passes — Barcelona’s goalkeepers (11.7 launch rate in open play) are the only ones to play short more regularly.
Tottenham are one of the least predictable teams around, instead reliant on individual brilliance and perfect execution of patterns to escape the press. That is particularly challenging given the injuries they have in defence and the regular changes Postecoglou makes to his midfield three. Tottenham have played four goalkeepers across all competitions this season (and signed one, in Antonin Kinsky from Slavia Prague) and it is an underutilisation of summer signing Dominic Solanke, who cost £65m from Bournemouth, to play long so rarely.
Last season, Bournemouth had the highest proportion of line-breaking passes over opposition defences and Solanke’s profile is similar to Harry Kane’s — he can be physical against centre-backs and bring team-mates into play. It stood out in Tottenham’s recent north London derby defeat at the Emirates, where they continuously played short and tried to go through and round one of the best pressing teams in Europe. Solanke only received seven passes (two from Kinsky) in 90 minutes.
The striker only has one headed goal this season, a reflection of how on-the-floor Tottenham’s attacking play has been. That was after four minutes at home to Newcastle, an opener in a match that Tottenham lost 2-1. It encapsulated their problems. From the kick-off at 1-0, Newcastle won a corner, which goalkeeper Brandon Austin claimed. He waited 10 seconds, allowed the team to take shape, then rolled it short to centre-back Archie Gray.
Immediately after scoring, they decided to go through the press (against another excellent pressing team). Pape Matar Sarr split Newcastle’s front line with an angled pass to Lucas Bergvall, but he slightly overhit his pass. It forced the teenager to try to poke it beyond Joelinton.
The game’s talking point was the ball hitting Joelinton’s hand — Postecoglou afterwards claimed not all had been “fair and even” — before Anthony Gordon was released to equalise on the break. Regardless, it was an instance when Tottenham could have played directly into Solanke and pinned Newcastle back to sustain momentum, but were instantly all-square.
At home, Tottenham’s defensive frailties are undermining them, a strange phenomenon considering how strong they are away (they and Crystal Palace have the joint-best away defences, with 11 conceded).
Postecoglou’s 30 home league games have only produced three clean sheets — and only one in the last 26, a 4-0 win over Everton in August — which is the fewest of any Premier League team to play in both of the last two seasons. Only three sides have conceded more than their 21 home goals in 2024-25: Wolverhampton Wanderers (23, 18th place), West Ham (24, 12th place), Southampton (27, 20th place).
Spurs have conceded too many at home, including six against Liverpool (Alex Pantling/Getty Images)
Too often, Tottenham find themselves 1-0 down at home, yet they almost seem to relish a game-chasing scenario as it better suits their intensity. In another paradox, they rank third for points won from losing positions (35) since the start of 2023-24 and have dropped the second-most points from winning situations (38) — those numbers practically cancel each other out.
Tottenham have been ahead in five of their last six league games and only won once, a 5-0 win away to Southampton. In four of those matches, they have taken the lead inside 30 minutes, including being 2-0 up after 11 minutes versus Chelsea (4-3 loss) and 4-0 up after only 25 minutes away to Southampton.
Being ahead so early is often at odds with Postecoglou’s high-running game plan and it means Tottenham can appear stuck between styles while also increasing the physical demands on players. As per SkillCorner, Tottenham top the Premier League charts for overall running distance, plus high-speed running and sprint distance.
It’s why he described Tottenham’s defeat away to Arsenal as “way too passive. (We) allowed Arsenal to take control of the game, to dictate the tempo. It’s not who we are, it’s not the way I set the team up. It’s not the way we want to play, to sit in there and allow Arsenal to play to their tempo. Irrespective of everything else, we just didn’t play anywhere near the identity I want us to be”.
A man-to-man pressing scheme and high defensive line demand repeated recovery sprints without the ball. Not only could this have exacerbated the injury crisis that has left Spurs fielding a makeshift back four, but such intense physical fatigue might also lead to tired decisions on the ball. Only Newcastle have been dispossessed more than Tottenham in the Premier League this season. Part of that owes to a young team, too, with six of Tottenham’s eight starting defenders and midfield against Arsenal aged under 25: Kinsky (21), Djed Spence (24), Gray (18), Radu Dragusin (22), Bergvall (18), Sarr (22).
Postecoglou’s side are at a crossroads. Their plateau in the Premier League coincides with a run to the Carabao Cup semi-finals, which includes beating Manchester City (1-0), Manchester United (4-3) and Liverpool (1-0, in the semi-final first leg) all at home. Likewise, they look set to qualify in the top eight of the Europa League, sitting ninth with 11 points from six matches and favourable fixtures away to struggling Hoffenheim and at home against Elfsborg.
Postecoglou’s entire style is predicated on having the ball, getting bodies in central areas and the half-spaces, and using passing combinations to create cutback scenarios. However, he’s blessed with plenty of pace out wide and whether by design or accident, Tottenham have been excellent on counter-attacks. They have the most fast break goals in the league (10), but also rank second for final-third regains per game (5.7). What Postecoglou wants his team to do, and where they naturally excel, now look more different than similar.
It is notable that the 59-year-old, who is frequently in conversation with the fourth official, actually coaches little from the sidelines, especially compared to Pep Guardiola. There is plenty of player empowerment to implement the game plan.
An under-discussed part of the challenge is how Postecoglou can even go about making adjustments. Tottenham are playing across four competitions — the north London derby was their 32nd game of the season — and still have four matches to play in January, before six games in 23 days in February. It’s a play-and-recover cycle with limited time on the training pitch.
Tottenham need more attacking layers. It is clearly unsustainable, physically and tactically, to try to go through complete games in the ways they have been. There is a fair argument that margins have counted against them, too, with 10 of their 11 league defeats coming by a single goal this season, but points (or a lack of) matter. Tottenham have not been this low (14th) or on this few points (24) after 21 games since 2008-09 under Harry Redknapp (19th on 20 points at this stage).
As proud as Postecoglou is of being entertaining and all-out-attack — “there’s plenty of room for pragmatism, I’m just not interested in it,” he said in November — he is at risk of dying on his sword. Tottenham need to be more boring.
(Top photo: Alex Pantling/Getty Images)
