Once a season there is normally cause for an explanation of why Pep Guardiola does not make substitutions when the conventional footballing wisdom is that some fresh blood is needed to ‘change the game’.
Often, even in matches when Manchester City are not looking especially threatening in front of goal, or may even look like conceding on the counter-attack, fans, commentators and pundits will be wondering why the man on the sideline is not making any substitutions.
“It’s the new version of Pep, yeah,” Guardiola joked after the 0-0 draw with Inter Milan on Wednesday. I was criticised because with five substitutions I didn’t make substitutions and now I make substitutions at half-time, and against Arsenal I will do the same.”
That last bit was obviously a joke and we know this because he would only actually make a double change at half-time if he felt there was something fundamentally wrong with how the game was panning out (that might happen on Sunday, but he will not know that now).
Against Brentford on Saturday he brought on Rodri and Josko Gvardiol for Mateo Kovacic and Rico Lewis at half-time, in part to help combat the Londoners’ threat with duels on the back of long balls. Thomas Frank noted how it helped City add physicality at set pieces, too.
On Wednesday he made a double substitution at the break once again, bringing on Phil Foden and Ilkay Gundogan for Kevin De Bruyne and Savinho. It had become apparent that De Bruyne picked up a knock in the first half and at the weekend Savinho was withdrawn late on, so Guardiola was asked what kind of physical problems they suffered against Inter.
There followed a long explanation of exactly why, in a fairly rare turn of events, he decided to change things early.
“No,” he said at the notion that injuries might have been the motivation. “The reason why is I wanted, against teams who defend 5-3-2 and when the ball is on one side five players go there, (it means) we cannot contact with Rodri in that position and you have to turn the ball quick, so we need players in small spaces and Rico (Lewis), Phil and Gundo are the best we have in those positions, the pockets, the small spaces.
“Phil turns and shoots, the two crosses that Gundo was there (for late headers in the box), the other players don’t have this, they have other qualities. The way (Inter) defend I was thinking after 35, 40 minutes that I want to make this substitution, and after what happened to Kevin the doctor said to me he was not ready to play but I was thinking of changing already at half-time.”
“We played so good, I love my team. We are a fantastic team.”
Pep Guardiola reflects on his sides performance and Kevin De Bruyne’s substitution 🗣
🎙 @julesbreach pic.twitter.com/bSJgbPbFOt
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) September 18, 2024
Guardiola had actually shed a bit of light on his frustration with De Bruyne’s performance in his post-match interview with TNT Sports; if teams are making it difficult when you are all in your usual positions, the last thing you should do is give them the ball when players are strung out all over the pitch.
“When you are alone and lose easy balls, it’s a counter-attack — it’s impossible to stop it,” Guardiola said. “You have to be more precise. It happened especially on the left side with Kevin.” At one point, Rodri berated De Bruyne for losing the ball, which prompted the Belgian to gesture as if to say, “What do you expect me to do?!”.
Guardiola was also asked if it is getting harder to pick the right line-up for a match, which is probably a fair question given Brentford were always going to be physical and Inter were always going to be compact, although you can be sure the City manager would have contemplated more possible outcomes than we know even exist.
Either way, his answer was rooted purely in the tactical specifics of this match.
“No. It’s just sometimes I don’t like it and I have weapons on the bench, and the reason why is what I said before.
“We need it against this structure, 5-3-2 with the two strikers, (Mehdi) Taremi and (Marcus) Thuram and then Lautaro (Martinez), they go with Rodri and they don’t allow you to find these pockets, these spaces, like always we have found, and that’s why I needed players with different specifics, and that’s all.”
And in that answer he explained why he so often chooses not to make any substitutions at all despite basically everybody else believing he should: he himself is broadly happy with how the game is going even if it is not vintage City.
Two seasons ago his team were labouring to a 0-0 draw at Crystal Palace amid a title race with Liverpool, but they were at least keeping Palace quiet, and Guardiola did not want to disrupt the flow of the game, given they were at least camped in the home side’s defensive third and in little danger of conceding a goal.
Last season City were on the ropes at RB Leipzig in the first leg of the Champions League last 16 and Guardiola explained afterwards that with the players he had on the bench that night, the problems they were suffering on the counter-attack would probably only have been exacerbated.
But when he can identify something that he feels is obviously not working, and he has options on the bench, then he is not going to hang around.
That is just rare, because City generally do not have too many glaring problems that cannot be fixed by the players already on the pitch, nor are they likely to play two teams back-to-back that are willing and able to pose them so many problems on their own pitch.
At this point in the season he has basically all of his top players fit enough to choose from, too.
So it might happen again on Sunday, especially given the problems Arsenal can pose, but it would still be unwise to expect it to happen too often.
(Top photo: Richard Sellers/Sportsphoto/Allstar via Getty Images)
