With the season’s final month upon us, fantasy managers must handle their teams down the stretch while keeping tabs on evolving roles during high-leverage events. This week’s headline features the Yankees shifting into a creative approach during save chances in the “short term”:
Boone said the Yankees will get “creative” with the closer role in the short term. He said Holmes could still be in the mix. I don’t think Boone wants to publicly say Holmes has lost his job, even temporarily. Expect the Yankees to go with matchups for foreseeable future.
— JackCurryYES (@JackCurryYES) September 4, 2024
This translates into the team trying to get Clay Holmes back on track after he suffered his MLB-leading 11th blown save on a walk-off grand slam in his most recent appearance. However, as our own Chris Kirschner points out, the team was not aggressive ahead of the trade deadline, creating a potential weakness in the team’s postseason push:
The day after the deadline, Brian Cashman told reporters he was comfortable with Clay Holmes as his closer. He did not seek other closer options. He was comfortable with Mark Leiter Jr. and Enyel De Los Santos. Those are the decisions that could linger well after the season is…
— Chris Kirschner (@ChrisKirschner) September 4, 2024
Time will tell how this all plays out, but fantasy managers will shift their focus on who receives the ninth-inning work during the match-up-based creative approach moving forward. Anticipate a committee, but a wild card may be Luis Gil. He or Clarke Schmidt could be added to the bullpen in the next week-to-10 days… As Boston drifts further from a wild card spot, and with Liam Hendriks potentially activated for this weekend’s series against the White Sox, he could receive an audition for the ninth inning before the end of the season. Monitor his results and usage patterns after his first couple of appearances. His biggest hurdle will be working on consecutive days… Last, but not least, Andrés Muñoz was unavailable earlier this week with some elbow soreness. He maintains it’s not severe, but fantasy managers should not ignore this over the next two weeks.
In the NL, the Cubs placed Jorge López on the 15-day injured list with a groin injury, putting Porter Hodge atop the team’s bullpen hierarchy… The Dodgers may mix and match in the ninth inning — Michael Kopech and Evan Phillips represent their preferred options, though Anthony Banda has secured two ancillary saves this season… After removing David Bednar from the closer role, many doubted the Pirates would use the committee Derek Shelton discussed, that is until Dennis Santana recorded his first save with the team earlier this week. He and Aroldis Chapman will be deployed using a match-up-based approach until Bednar is ready for a save opportunity… Finally, Colorado’s Victor Vodnik will begin a minor league rehab assignment on Friday at Double-A Hartford. He could return early next week.
There have been multiple changes in our leverage pathways. Recognizing how a manager prefers handling high-leverage innings can create a competitive advantage. Here are our high-leverage pathway identifiers. Each team will receive one of the following labels:
- Mostly Linear: This is a more traditional approach, with a manager preferring one reliever in the seventh inning, another in the eighth, and a closer (when rested) in the ninth. There are shades of gray, but it’s usually a predictable leverage pathway.
- Primary Save Share: The team prefers one reliever as the primary option for saves. However, he may also be used in match-up-based situations, whether dictated by batter-handedness or batting order pockets in the late innings. This provides multiple relievers with save chances each series or week throughout the season.
- Shared Saves: Usually, two relievers split save opportunities, sometimes based on handedness, rest, or recent usage patterns that keep them fresh. While these situations usually rely on a primary and ancillary option, others can get into the mix. Some teams also prefer a match-up-based option, assigning pitchers a hitter pocket for a series, causing fluid save opportunities.
Relievers on the Rise (Eyes on 2025)
Ben Joyce (LAA): He hasn’t been scored upon over his past seven games, spanning eight innings, with 10 strikeouts and no walks with a 0.63 WHIP. Since August 16, he ranks sixth in swinging strike percentage (23.9), tied for ninth in contact rate allowed (58.5 percent), and 11th in SIERA (1.36) among his peers. He also recorded the fastest pitch resulting in a strikeout during the Statcast era. He’s continued adapting his pitch mix after introducing a “splinker” earlier this season. Here are his splits by pitch in this dominant stretch, with the caveat that it’s a small sample:
Porter Hodge (CHC): In the second half, he’s recorded 16 appearances without allowing a run in his 18 games, with three wins, two saves (in three chances) and six holds. He’s produced 27 strikeouts against eight walks (26.4 K-BB percentage) and a 14.9 percent swinging strike rate. One would prefer his walk percentage to decline from its 11.1 percent rate in this sample, but he’s emerged as the team’s most trusted high-leverage reliever.
Ryan Walker (SF): Walker has not only filled in capably as the closer for the demoted Camilo Doval, he’s thrived since the All-Star break. Through his 19 appearances in the second half, he’s recorded two wins, five holds, and converted five of seven save chances across 20 innings, with 30 strikeouts against five walks (32.1 K-BB percentage). He’s produced a 1.95 SIERA, with a 13.2 percent swinging strike rate and 70.2 contact percentage. As the season comes to a close, it is looking like Doval may need a change of scenery for save opportunities in 2025.
Reliever on the Rise (Eyes on the Present)
Dennis Santana (PIT): It’s tough trusting a reliever with such volatile results in the past, but he’s been a stabilizing force in the Pirates bullpen. He’s amid an 11-game scoreless streak, with 15 strikeouts versus one walk in his past 14 innings, while recording a minuscule 0.21 WHIP. In the second half, he’s generated 25 strikeouts against two walks in 21.2 innings while streamlining his arsenal. Can he maintain these gains? For now, only time will tell, but here’s his adjusted pitch mix displaying his increased slider use:
Closer Concern
Justin Martinez (ARI): He’s given up at least a run in seven of his past ten appearances and 13 hits over these 10.2 innings, with a .462 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). He’s also allowed six walks, resulting in a 1.78 WHIP in this sample. He’s still producing an 18.5 swinging strike percentage and a 63 percent contact rate allowed. His inflated BABIP should normalize, but the 62.9 strike percentage must improve so that his 5.14 ERA migrates toward his 3.14 SIERA. Here’s his rolling game chart, reflecting the recent spike in BABIP:
Save Stashes
Ancillary Save Options
Ratio Relievers
*Multi-inning or bridge relievers who can vulture wins and help protect ratios. All relievers listed have a WHIP less than one, a SIERA less than 2.75, a K-BB percentage above 20, a strike percentage over 66 percent, and a swinging strike rate over 14 percent in the second half:
Tiered Rankings for Saves and SOLDS
Statistical Credits (through September 3): Fangraphs.com; Baseball-Reference.com; BaseballSavant.com; BrooksBaseball.net
For daily coverage of bullpens, check out my work at Reliever Recon and Closer Monkey
(Top photo of Ben Joyce: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports)
