Welcome to the fifth annual Hater’s Ball, where I make you wish you didn’t draft anyone. I’m keeping this to the top 50 picks. It’s often snappy, sometimes snarky, but it always gets the nut of what can go wrong with each pick. I admit to not being what you would call one of life’s great enjoyers. If you want me to say something positive, you’ll often have to settle for two negative statements. But it’s important actually to consider the downside of each player so we can objectively decide as quickly as possible if a slow start is just random noise or an indication of things being more permanently sideways.
If you prefer to bask in the land of sunshine and rainbows, John Laghezza invites you to the Lover’s Ball, his optimistic take on all the players below.
Note: These are the picks in the order of FantasyPros ADP
Christian McCaffrey, SF — Saying the No. 1 overall pick is probably not going to be the best fantasy player is a dull take. But CMC is far more likely to disappoint than the base rate given he was hurt all camp, is getting up there in age and the worry that All-World, oft-injured OT Trent Williams may have a lengthy holdout.
Tyreek Hill, MIA — Beyond Hill acting three times every game like he’s on death’s door and may never take another snap, there are no worries about drafting Hill. He’s a drama queen, like all divas, and all great wide receivers.
CeeDee Lamb, DAL — The top two WRs are the cleanest players in drafts this year. Lamb wasn’t quite allergic to TDs before 2023, but a score every 13 catches is not ideal. Last year, one every 11.25. That’s not Jerry Rice, but it’s fine.
Justin Jefferson, MIN — Most fantasy analysts would not want Sam Darnold quarterbacking their Sunday morning flag football team. If you draft Jefferson, you’re tying your fate largely to “The Gingerbread Man.”
Bijan Robinson, ATL — We’re told that Bijan is getting most of the carries, even on the goal line. But in scrimmages, it was about 33% of first-team carries for Robinson. The Falcons don’t seem to buy Bijan as a bell cow.
Breece Hall, NYJ — Drafting Hall here is showing faith that things are going to work out for the Jets, who walk under a ladder to get into a locker room filled with broken mirrors and black cats.
Ja’Marr Chase, CIN — Chase threatening to hold out for two years because he wants to beat former LSU teammate Justin Jefferson’s contract by one cent is such a diva power move. It may keep him off the field until 2026, but it’s not the penny, it’s the principle!
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET — The new Keenan Allen. He averages seven touchdowns every 100 catches. He’s 53rd out of 60 qualifiers in aDOT — actually well below even Allen.
A.J. Brown, PHI — The problem with Brown is that he’s tethered to a QB who hates TD passes — 4.2% career for Jalen Hurts. That’s 23.1 TD passes per 550 attempts, and that many passes would be an upset.
Saquon Barkley, PHI — Barkley is the used car that has the showroom shine hiding an extensive crash report. We also know first-and-goal from the 1, first drive of 2024, Barkley is not getting that score. You’re going to feel mugged.
Jonathan Taylor, IND — It’s the worst of both worlds for Taylor with a QB who can’t pass well enough to extend enough drives into the red zone and one who may lead the club in rushing scores.
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET — Gibbs is the back for the fantasy managers who like to do things the hard way. Who needs a high snap rate? Who needs goal-line TDs? Mere trifles!
Garrett Wilson, NYJ — Even more optimistic than the Hall manager is the Wilson manager. Receiver is the most team-dependent position.
Puka Nacua, LAR — Nacua’s injury history looks like the after photo of an old voodoo doll.
Marvin Harrison Jr., ARI — Senior was one of the best ever and was WR26 on average until Peyton Manning emerged as his QB. Kyler Murray is no Peyton Manning.
Travis Etienne Jr., JAC — Just when we were feeling great about Etienne finally dominating snaps, Tank Bigsby has to average nearly five yards after contact per carry in the preseason.
Kyren Williams, LAR — Williams managers hit that bottom-shelf hooch hard when they heard madman Sean McVay say, “YOLO! Williams is our punt returner!” I believe the last punt returner who was a primary RB was Tiki Barber.
Derrick Henry, BAL — Henry is the dinosaur just before the meteor strike. He’s not looking so much to outrun Father Time, just truck him into the end zone about 15 times.
Davante Adams, LV — Adams’ QBs now make Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo look like Ken Stabler and Daryle Lamonica.
De’Von Achane, MIA — The big runs can’t dry up, right? Newsflash: They already did — 28% big runs in the first five games down to 14% the final nine, including postseason.
Drake London, ATL — The plan is in place. Now all we need is for Kirk Cousins off an Achilles tear to turn into 2012 Peyton Manning in Denver and then… championship!
Josh Allen, BUF — Congratulations! You burned an early draft pick and solved no problems.
Josh Jacobs, GB — It’s twice as likely you get the 800-ish-yard ham-and-egger than the 1,600-yard juggernaut. Jacobs needs a bell-cow role but has a committee coach.
Isiah Pacheco, KC — The Chiefs are like Lucy holding the football with the running backs. This time it’s going to be different! Andy Reid backs only seem to turn a profit outside the top 50.
Chris Olave, NO — Derek Carr was good enough. The hard truth is that Olave is not a true No. 1 WR. Olave averages a TD every 18 catches for his career.
Deebo Samuel, SF — Topped 100 targets once, three seasons ago. The past two years, it’s 6.5 targets per game. That’s 110 in a full season and we know he’s not playing 17 games.
Travis Kelce, KC — The Chiefs’ plan apparently is to load-manage Kelce for our important games so they can fully use him for their important games, after our seasons are over. Forecast: 150 innings, zero complete games.
Nico Collins, HOU — Set to become a Deebo Samuel All-Star as a player who is way better than his usage. Just when he was ready to step into the spotlight, the Texans brought in the Diana Ross of WR Divas.
Sam LaPorta, DET — The “King of the Boring Tight Ends.” LaPorta had three games of more than 63 yards. In his four games with 10+ targets, he averaged a gross 5.9 yards per target.
Jalen Hurts, PHI — Has become the classic “better in fantasy than in real life.” Was savagely downgraded by NFL people in Mike Sando’s latest QB tiers. Experts see trouble with the loss of the lineman who called protections and a coordinator who likes to pass. God forbid Hurts passes!
Patrick Mahomes, KC — The QB1 once since his first season. A “better in real-life than in fantasy” first-team all-star. Mahomes at QB, RB James Cook, WR Deebo, Kittle at TE…
Rachaad White, TB — A ham-and-egger in real life who is managed by his team as if they’re starting him in their collective fantasy league. If they begin to care more about production out of the position, White managers are in big trouble.
James Cook, BUF — Touchdowns are fascist. Cook is a man of the people.
Michael Pittman Jr., IND — What do we get when we combine a boring, non-explosive receiver with a QB who has started 17 games since high school and gets laughed at by opponents for his remedial passing? We’re about to find out.
Brandon Aiyuk, SF — He’s going to cost you more now that he’s signed. Only Christian McCaffrey actually gets to eat in the Niners offense. Everyone else is Oliver begging for more gruel.
Cooper Kupp, LAR — Always bet on a 31-year old with an extensive injury history who’s been healthy for about five minutes the past two seasons.
Mike Evans, TB — Caught his first career touchdown three U.S. presidents ago. Three receivers over 220 pounds have had over 200 PPR points at age 31 in NFL history. Collapses include Julio Jones, Vincent Jackson, Demaryius Thomas, Plaxico Burress.
Stefon Diggs, HOU — The first receiver ever drafted on the premise that he’ll complain his way into a boatload of targets.
Jaylen Waddle, MIA — When you draft Waddle, you’re conceding he can’t be a No. 1 fantasy WR and you’re okay with that. “The biggest human temptation is to settle for too little.” (Thomas Merton)
DJ Moore, CHI — Moore always has to do things the hard way. He finally proved he can excel despite atrocious QB play. Finally paired with an exciting QB, his team guarantees depressed targets by surrounding him with an additional two top WRs.
Lamar Jackson, BAL — Low-key hates rushing TDs. Lamar is the anti-Josh Allen, with 10 rushing TDs combined in his past three seasons. Allen had six last December alone.
DK Metcalf, SEA — All that size and speed and he wins 50/50 balls at one of the lowest rates in the league. They’re 10/90 balls when thrown to DK.
Kenneth Walker III, SEA — He’s only on the field about half the time and it’s very tough to score fantasy points on the sideline.
Joe Mixon, HOU — Trailed D’Onta Foreman in rushing yards over expected per carry, according to NFL’s Next Gen. Foreman was just cut.
Alvin Kamara, NO — Not going to lie, but the key to Kamara’s entire fantasy season is whether the Saints keep throwing him negative-value passes. No player has ever been more reliant on the stupidity of coaches/lack of courage by his QB.
Malik Nabers, NYG — A million targets coming and, best of all, these are Daniel Jones targets. Danny Dimes! What can go wrong?
DeVonta Smith, PHI — The No. 2 WR on a team where the QB never bothers to find the second read.
Trey McBride, ARI — TEs live between the hashes, right? But the “Mayor of MunchkinLand” can’t see over the line to throw over the middle — just seven catches for 74 yards between the hashes for McBride last year from Kyler Murray.
C.J. Stroud, HOU — A FOMO all-star, but why? You know deep down you wouldn’t bet five cents on pocket-passer Stroud outscoring the much cheaper Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins or even Matthew Stafford.
Mark Andrews, BAL — Fingers crossed that the Ravens don’t realize that Isaiah is Likely better.
(Top photo of Tyreek Hill: Rich Storry/Getty Images)
